U.S.-Iran negotiations make major progress; first energy vessel passes Strait of Hormuz

Jinshi Futures APP exclusively compiled, reviewing key futures news from the past week.

Maersk has announced an adjustment to the peak season surcharge (PSS) for the Far East to Northern Europe and Mediterranean routes.

1. Effective date: The price calculation for departures from the Far East (excluding Korea) takes effect on July 7, 2026; the price calculation for departures from Korea takes effect on July 16, 2026.

2. Northern Europe and Mediterranean route rates: From the Far East (excluding Korea) to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean, all 20-foot container rates are $750; all 40-foot and 45-foot container rates are $1,500.

3. Syria route rates: From the Far East (excluding Korea) to Syria, all 20-foot containers are priced at €650; all 40-foot and 45-foot containers are priced at €1,300.

4. Additional note: Cargo originating from Korea will be subject to an equivalent seasonal surcharge. This fee applies to all container types, including dry containers, refrigerated containers, open-top containers, and others.

On the 16th, U.S. President Trump said that the United States and Iran have successfully signed a memorandum of understanding online, and that the negotiations for the U.S.-Iran agreement have now entered the second phase, “which should be easier than the first phase.” He also stated that the United States will not invest any funds in Iran. (Xinhua)

The World Gold Council (WGC) said on Tuesday that 45% of central banks surveyed expect to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months, up 2 percentage points from a year ago. In the WGC’s annual survey conducted between February 5 and May 19, 54% of the 74 central banks indicated their gold holdings would remain unchanged, while 1% expected a decline. Most responses were received after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in late February, which triggered a rise in oil prices and a decline in gold prices. The WGC’s Global Head of Central Banks said central banks remain enthusiastic about gold, and recent price declines have not altered their views. Additionally, the WGC noted that 93% of respondents currently hold gold, up from 81% a year ago. Among the many reasons for holding gold, as many as 90% of respondents said gold performs well during times of crisis. Other key reasons include long-term value storage and portfolio diversification. Respondents from emerging markets and developing economies (85%) placed greater emphasis on gold as a hedge against geopolitical risk. As some central banks continue to relocate their gold reserves, 9% of respondents reported increasing their domestic gold holdings over the past 12 months, up from 5% last year; 10% said they had diversified the locations of their overseas gold reserves, up from 2% last year. Over the next 12 months, 7% of central banks plan to increase domestic storage, and 9% plan to diversify their overseas storage locations.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to the highest level in 31 years, a long-anticipated move signaling its commitment to addressing inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Tuesday, the bank voted 7 to 1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marks the first rate hike since December last year, pushing the Bank of Japan’s policy rate to levels not seen since 1995. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who is hospitalized for treatment, was absent and did not participate in the vote. The afternoon press conference will be led by Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, whose remarks will be closely watched to gauge how the Bank of Japan plans to continue assessing the negative economic impacts of the war in Iran.

Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price target for the second time in one week

Goldman Sachs has issued its latest forecast: “Following Trump’s announcement of a provisional agreement and the subsequent lifting of U.S. sanctions and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, we have lowered our oil price forecasts. Although the full details of the agreement remain unclear, we currently assume that Persian Gulf exports will normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July (previously estimated for the end of August). We have reduced our Brent crude oil forecast for Q4 2026 to $80 (previously $90) and the average price forecast for 2027 to $75 (previously $80). We expect the average WTI crude oil price in Q4 2026 to be $75 per barrel and $70 per barrel in 2027.”

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, steel production in May amounted to 123.03 million tons, a year-over-year decrease of 2.8%. From January to May, cumulative steel production reached 592.99 million tons, down 1.5% year-over-year. In May, crude steel production was 84.36 million tons, down 2.7% year-over-year. From January to May, cumulative crude steel production totaled 415.53 million tons, down 3.9% year-over-year. In May, pig iron production was 72.97 million tons, down 2.6% year-over-year. From January to May, cumulative pig iron production reached 354.71 million tons, down 3.1% year-over-year.

In May, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments conscientiously implemented the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and accurately implemented the new development philosophy, accelerated the building of a new development pattern, earnestly executed more proactive and effective macro policies, effectively responded to external shocks and challenges, saw steady growth in production and supply, overall stability in employment and prices, continued resilience in foreign trade, and the growth and strengthening of new drivers, with the national economy continuing its overall stable and increasingly optimized development trend.

As of June 17, all coal mines in Qinyuan County, Changzhi, remain suspended. Qinyuan County currently has a total of 27 coal mines with a combined production capacity of 28.9 million tons (including five long-term suspended mines and two thermal coal mines). The county government has issued a notice on the implementation plan for the acceptance inspection of mine resumption of production and operation, strictly following the procedure of “application submission, organization of inspection, review and signature.” Before applying for inspection, mines must sign the “Qinyuan County Coal Mine Resumption of Production and Operation Safety Commitment Letter,” pledging that they do not engage in six types of illegal activities: concealed working faces, over-layer and boundary mining, falsification of monitoring systems, illegal subcontracting or transfer of contracts, entering the mine without carrying location cards, and non-compliant gas drainage. If any false statements in the commitment are verified, the mine will be categorically denied approval for resumption. Furthermore, the acceptance and approval process for resumption operates under a lifelong accountability system, adhering to the principle of “whoever inspects, signs, and is responsible”; those who lower standards or falsify information will be held legally accountable retroactively. After inspection, mines meeting resumption conditions will receive a “Coal Mine Resumption Notice” from the County Emergency Management Bureau, which will also be copied to relevant departments including coal mine safety supervision, coal industry management, public security, and power authorities. Additionally, for mines approved for resumption, the County Emergency Management Bureau will cooperate with higher-level regulatory bodies to conduct random inspections in accordance with the national and provincial/municipal prescribed ratios. According to the latest survey, mines in the county are currently preparing for resumption inspections; the specific resumption timeline will depend on the actual progress of government-led acceptance inspections. (Mysteel)

According to the latest survey by Mysteel: As of May 23, a total of 155 coking coal mines in Shanxi Province were suspended, with a combined capacity of 183.1 million tons. As of June 17, 97 mines had resumed production, with a combined capacity of 117.4 million tons; 58 mines remained suspended, with a combined capacity of 65.7 million tons. This period’s data shows that the resumption progress of Shanxi mines has slowed compared to the previous period. Due to stringent safety supervision at all levels across Shanxi, frequent safety inspections have led to repeated suspensions and resumptions of production. Additionally, mines currently in operation have been forced to halt due to inspections or identified safety hazards, resulting in an increase in both the number and capacity of suspended mines compared to the previous period. Among the suspended mines, the resumption prospects for Qinyuan mine remain uncertain. Although relevant authorities have issued a notice on the implementation plan for mine resumption inspections, the inspection criteria are strict, making a short-term resumption unlikely.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday that the global oil market will gradually recover from the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure, followed by a significant supply surplus in 2027. The IEA stated that the United States and Iran have reached an agreement to end a war lasting nearly three months. The agreement includes Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the United States lifting its maritime blockade, which could bring an end to the largest oil supply disruption in history, during which oil production in the Middle East had dropped by more than 14 million barrels per day. The agency said, “If the deal is finalized, exports and production in the Gulf will gradually resume—particularly because Iran’s oil exports can fully resume once the U.S. lifts its blockade.” In its first outlook for 2027, the IEA noted that next year the oil market will face a severe oversupply, with global oil supply expected to surge by 8 million barrels per day while demand grows by only 2 million barrels per day. This could provide a welcome respite for markets, giving countries the opportunity to replenish depleted inventories or establish new strategic reserves as they respond to the crisis and reassess their energy strategies and policies.

At the opening ceremony of the 2026 Lujiazui Forum, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, stated that a package of new incremental policies will soon be introduced, comprehensively reforming FDI cross-border policies, further simplifying management of ODI and foreign debt transactions, optimizing systems for foreign exchange loans and cross-border equity incentives, and issuing a new batch of QDII quotas.(21st Century Business Herald)

On June 17, at the opening ceremony of the 2026 Lujiazui Forum, Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated that efforts will be made to enhance the international influence of the "Shanghai Price," steadily promote the listing of liquefied natural gas futures and options, and support the development of foundational and strategic futures products such as electricity. (Securities Times)

Some coke producers in Shandong, Shanxi, and other regions have initiated the eighth round of price increases for coke.

On June 17, coke prices in the Shandong region, including markets in Weifang, Binzhou, Dezhou, Jining, Zaozhuang, Heze, Rizhao, Tai'an, and Linyi, are scheduled to increase: wet-quenched coke by RMB 50 per ton and dry-quenched coke by RMB 55 per ton, effective from 0:00 on June 20.

1. Due to a significant increase in the price of raw coal, the production cost of coke has continued to rise. Based on current market conditions, Shanxi Yangguang Coke Group Co., Ltd. plans to adjust coke prices, raising the price of dry-quenched coke by 55 yuan per ton effective at 00:00 on June 20, 2026.

2. Due to recent tight supply of raw coal and sustained significant price increases, coke producers have experienced a substantial rise in production costs, intensifying operational pressures. Based on current market conditions, Xuyang Marketing Co., Ltd. has decided to increase the price of wet-quenched coke by RMB 50 per ton and dry-quenched coke by RMB 55 per ton, effective from 00:00 on June 20. (Mysteel)

According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, on June 17, during the Lujiazui Forum, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the London Metal Exchange held a signing ceremony for the authorization of the settlement price for hot-rolled coil futures. Under this collaboration, the Shanghai Futures Exchange has authorized the LME to use its hot-rolled coil futures settlement price as the benchmark for a new futures contract. This marks the first time a Chinese futures exchange has partnered with a renowned international exchange to export the “Shanghai Price” in a metal futures contract. Following the agreement, the LME plans to list the “LME Shanghai Hot-Rolled Coil Contract” on its London exchange in October this year, with its settlement price based on the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s hot-rolled coil futures settlement price, enabling global investors to directly reference and use the Shanghai hot-rolled coil futures price for investment, trading, and risk management.

On June 18, the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources issued an announcement titled "One Administrative Permit for Land Use Review and Site Selection (as of June 17, 2026)." The announcement states that the land use review and site selection for the Zhenkouli–Jiexiawo lithium mine mining project in Yifeng County and Fengxin County have been approved. According to reporters, within the full lifecycle of a construction project, the land use review and site selection opinion is the first step in the pre-approval phase and the initial stage of planning implementation. This step occurs before the project is officially approved or formally planned, serving as the first legal document required and representing the first gateway to project implementation, still some distance from formal approval. (Futures Daily)

On June 18, the last working day before the Dragon Boat Festival, lithium carbonate prices plunged sharply. By the close of trading, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures, LC2609, fell more than 6%, dropping to around 160,000 yuan per ton—a decline of over 20% from its previous peak. In the spot market, according to the latest data from Mysteel, the morning average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate on June 18 dropped by 800 yuan per ton compared to the previous working day, settling at 168,800 yuan per ton. In addition to conventional factors such as pre-holiday risk-aversion demand, an anonymous analyst noted that recent rumors have emerged about accelerated resumption of operations at CATL’s Jiexiawo lithium mine in Yichun, leading to widespread market expectations of increased supply in the near future. That afternoon, the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources’ Land Use Control Division confirmed that Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. had regained the “Opinion on Pre-Review of Land Use and Site Selection for Construction Projects” for the Jiexiawo lithium mine project on June 17, with validity extending from June 17, 2026, to June 17, 2029.（Interface）

According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in May 2026, the country produced 84.36 million tons of crude steel, a year-over-year decrease of 2.7%, with daily output at 2.7213 million tons/day, down 2.4% month-over-month; produced 72.97 million tons of pig iron, a year-over-year decrease of 2.6%, with daily output at 2.3539 million tons/day, down 0.1% month-over-month; and produced 123.03 million tons of steel products, a year-over-year decrease of 2.8%, with daily output at 3.9687 million tons/day, down 2.9% month-over-month. From January to May, cumulative crude steel production reached 416 million tons, down 3.9% year-over-year, with cumulative daily output at 2.7519 million tons; cumulative pig iron production reached 355 million tons, down 3.1% year-over-year, with cumulative daily output at 2.3491 million tons; and cumulative steel product production reached 593 million tons, down 1.5% year-over-year, with cumulative daily output at 3.9271 million tons.

The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announces that, upon approval by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, lithium carbonate futures and options listed on the exchange have been designated as domestic specific varieties. The following matters concerning overseas traders participating in trading of these varieties are hereby announced:

I. Implementation Time

Trading begins on July 3, 2026, Beijing Time, with a call auction from 08:55 to 09:00, and opening at 09:00.

II. Trading Contracts

LC2607 and subsequent futures contracts, as well as options contracts based on the aforementioned futures contracts.

Report: Iran's post-war petrochemical production has nearly reached 90%

According to the Iranian Students News Agency: The head of Iran's largest petrochemical group stated that 89% of the petrochemical facilities that ceased operations during the war have resumed production.

According to Mysteel, for the week ending June 18, rebar production increased for the second consecutive week, apparent demand turned from decline to growth, mill inventories rose for the third consecutive week, and social inventories declined for the fourteenth consecutive week.

① Threaded steel production was 2.1873 million tons, an increase of 41,400 tons from last week, up 1.93%;

② Thread mill warehouses at 1.8492 million tons, an increase of 31,200 tons from last week, up 1.72%;

③ Thread inventory at 4.7397 million tons, down 51,900 tons from last week, a decrease of 1.08%;

④ The demand for rebar is 2.208 million tons, an increase of 134,800 tons from last week, up 6.50%.

According to foreign media, on Thursday, Indonesia’s Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated that Indonesia plans to officially launch the B50 biofuel program on July 1, which aims to blend 50% palm oil-based biodiesel with 50% conventional diesel, adding that current fuel test results have performed well.

Goldman Sachs lowers gold price target, expecting no Fed rate cuts this year

Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500 due to reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2026. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven stated in a report: “We have revised our December gold price target down to $4,900 per ounce (from $5,400), implying that gold prices are still expected to rise in the second half of the year, but by less than previously anticipated. Our structural view on gold remains constructive, but we are tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks.” The analysts noted that the downward revision stems from Goldman Sachs economists pushing back their expectations for U.S. rate cuts to June and December next year, from the prior forecasts of December 2026 and March 2027, as well as lower projections for gold ETF inflows. They added that concerns about central bank independence may be limited given the “surprisingly hawkish” tone of the first Fed meeting under Waugh.

Institution: The U.S. soybean production forecast for the 2026/27 season remains at 120.9 million metric tons.

According to foreign media, LSEG, a commodities analysis firm, stated that better-than-expected weather in June, combined with favorable overall conditions and steady crop progress, has kept the 2026/27 U.S. soybean production forecast at 120.9 million metric tons, a 4.3% increase from the previous year, though long-term weather risks remain. The USDA’s June Supply and Demand report estimated U.S. soybean production at 120.7 million metric tons, slightly below LSEG’s current forecast. The current estimate for planted area is 85.5 million acres, up 5.2% from last year and 800,000 acres higher than the 84.7 million acres reported in the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report.

The key driver behind the better-than-expected early yield potential has been favorable weather since June, with more rainfall expected next week, further supporting crops that have been under stress from water shortages since the start of the season, especially as they approach critical growth stages. However, while the short-term weather outlook remains favorable, the medium- to long-term outlook requires caution. The latest summer outlook indicates that temperatures during the peak crop growth period from early July to mid-August will be above normal, which, if realized, could exert downward pressure on yields.

Iran announces new transit rules for the Strait of Hormuz: applications must be submitted 48 hours in advance.

On the 19th local time, Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority announced that, in light of the signing of the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding and related directives from competent authorities, vessels applying for transit through the Strait of Hormuz will be granted passage if their applications are submitted in accordance with requirements and meet relevant conditions within the announced time frame. According to the transit requirements issued by the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, vessel transit applications must be submitted at least 48 hours before arriving in the Strait of Hormuz area. (CCTV)

Guangdong Province: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product portfolio and completing the full futures industry chain.

The Guangdong Provincial People's Government issued a notice on the "Guangdong Province Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector," which mentions supporting the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in deepening investment and financing reforms to build a world-class exchange. It also supports the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product portfolio and improving the full futures industry chain. The plan calls for industry regulators and local governments to strengthen support for enterprises listing on regional equity markets, enhancing the foundational functions of these markets.

The number of commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz on the 18th reached its highest level since mid-April.

Maritime data company AXS Marine reported on the 19th that 25 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on the 18th, the highest daily volume since mid-April. (Xinhua News Agency)

Trump: Approximately 700 ships are passing through the strait; Iran must reach an agreement within 60 days.

President Trump said that approximately 700 ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran must reach an agreement within 60 days, otherwise we will take some actions they won’t like. He added that he believes things won’t escalate to that point. “Remember, if we do that, oil will suddenly stop flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, because those who own ships worth billions of dollars don’t like missiles flying over their heads or mines scattered across the water,” he said.

The Iranian military has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranian Armed Forces' Hatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters stated local time on the 20th that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to all vessel navigation.

The U.S. military says it has not observed Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz.

According to U.S. media on the 20th, citing senior U.S. officials, the U.S. military has not observed any military movements by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. (Xinhua)

Iran's Revolutionary Guard warns vessels to stay away from the Strait of Hormuz.

According to CNN, after Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy warned all vessels not to approach the waterway. A reporter from Iran’s state television said the IRGC Navy had issued warnings via radio broadcasts and directly contacted vessels in the region. The warning stated that ships attempting to transit the strait could encounter mines or become targets of Iranian naval forces. The reporter also noted that vessel traffic in the Persian Gulf had “further decreased” compared to a few hours earlier.

Trump: No tolls will be charged during and after the ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz; if no agreement is reached, the U.S. will impose fees.

President Trump stated on social media: During the 60-day ceasefire, no tolls will be charged for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and no tolls will be charged after the ceasefire ends, unless the agreement is not completed, in which case the United States may impose fees for its own purposes as compensation for its role as a "guardian angel" providing services to Middle Eastern countries, to cover past, present, and future costs.

Vance says the focus of U.S.-Iran negotiations is on nuclear issues and a ceasefire in Lebanon.

According to CNN, U.S. Vice President Vance said his top priorities in negotiations with Iran are establishing a framework for progress on Iran’s nuclear program and advancing a ceasefire in Lebanon. Before departing for Switzerland, he stated, “We will establish a politically led framework at the highest level, while technical teams continue working on the ground.” He said he would be able to stay in Switzerland for only “one to two days,” but hoped to make progress on issues related to Iran’s nuclear materials. Vance also said that advancing a ceasefire in Lebanon is another priority, as the region has recently faced renewed missile attacks from Israel. He described the situation as “something we must continuously manage.” “These two issues are our focus. I believe the Iranian side also has issues they wish to discuss,” he said.

Vance: The U.S. and Iran will "work together to promote peace and prosperity"; negotiations have made significant progress in the past few hours

U.S. Vice President Vance, at the negotiation site in Switzerland, stated that “significant” progress has been made in the past few hours, with more progress expected within hours. The United States and Iran now see “a shared future in which all parties can work together to promote peace and prosperity.” President Trump has asked us to “turn a new page” in transforming our relationship with the Iranian people. U.S. President Trump has “authorized us to seek diplomatic solutions on a range of issues,” and the question is whether we can permanently alter the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Additionally, according to Saudi media, U.S. Vice President Vance announced that the Strait of Hormuz has been opened, with further measures anticipated. Over the past few days, we have made significant progress in securing a ceasefire in Lebanon. Such ceasefires are always somewhat chaotic. U.S. President Trump is committed to achieving a comprehensive regional ceasefire.