U.S.-Iran negotiations make progress toward a framework agreement to end the war

Huo Xing Finance reports that on April 15, according to Axios, two U.S. officials stated that negotiations between American and Iranian representatives made progress during talks on Tuesday local time, with both sides moving toward a framework agreement to end the war. One U.S. official said the Trump negotiation team—comprising Vice President Vance, Middle East Special Envoy Witkoff, and senior advisor Kushner—has continued phone calls and draft exchanges with Iran and mediators and is “close to the goal.” A third official said, “We want to reach an agreement, and some in Iran also want one; the key is securing full agreement from the Iranian government.” Sources indicated that if a framework agreement is reached, the ceasefire must be extended to negotiate details. “The details are complex and cannot be finalized in two days,” said one official. Another official noted that the U.S. has not yet formally agreed to extend the ceasefire, and both sides remain in ongoing contact. According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a permanent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran being reached by April 22 is 27%, by April 30 is 42%, and by May 31 is 60%.