BlockBeats report: On May 25, amid expectations of an imminent U.S.-Iran agreement, international oil prices opened sharply lower. As of reporting, both WTI and Brent crude oil futures had declined more than 5%. Previously, Trump stated that U.S.-Iran negotiations were "getting closer" to reaching an agreement, though he later emphasized that the deal was "not yet fully finalized." Nevertheless, markets had already begun pricing in the expectation of reduced geopolitical risk.
Analysts point out that the key driver behind the decline in oil prices is market expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will gradually return to normal operations. Iran has reported that over the past 24 hours, 33 vessels, including tankers, have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating a significant improvement in shipping conditions compared to before.
Wu Yan, an analyst at Longzhong Information, stated that the preliminary formation of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran has released a long-awaited positive signal to the market; while Han Zhengji, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, believes that if the agreement is ultimately implemented, international oil prices may continue to decline as the geopolitical premium fades, but if the situation deteriorates again, oil prices could rebound rapidly.
However, several analysts emphasize that the global crude oil market still faces a supply deficit. With production in multiple Gulf countries yet to return to normal and the Northern Hemisphere approaching its summer peak fuel consumption season, oil prices may remain elevated and volatile in the short term. Wu Yan expects Brent crude oil prices to range between $87 and $110 per barrel from June to August.