U.S. Defense Secretary Confirms Ceasefire Still in Effect; Iran Says It Remains in a State of War

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1. The U.S. Secretary of Defense stated that the ceasefire has not ended; U.S. forces said Iran’s attacks have not reached the threshold for restarting large-scale military operations.

2. Trump: Progress made with Iran; "Freedom Plan" to be temporarily paused, sanctions will remain in effect.

3. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive time, underscoring its determination to curb persistent high inflation and solidifying its status as a lone ranger among major global central banks.

4. According to Mysteel’s research, a large alumina plant in Guangxi unexpectedly halted production. During the holiday period, the plant began reheating and trial production, involving an annual capacity of approximately 1.1 million tons; currently, one production line has been temporarily restored.

5. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Iranian Foreign Minister Alirzae will visit China on May 6 by invitation, and will hold talks with Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs.

1. U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth stated that two U.S. commercial vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz alongside a U.S. destroyer, demonstrating that the waterway remains open.

2. Trump: Progress made with Iran; "Freedom Plan" to be temporarily paused, sanctions will remain in effect.

3. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive time, underscoring its determination to curb persistent high inflation and solidifying its position as a lone ranger among major global central banks. In an 8-to-1 vote, it increased the cash rate from 4.1% to 4.35%, fully reversing the monetary easing cycle of last year.

4. The U.S. Secretary of Defense stated that the ceasefire has not ended; U.S. forces said Iran’s attack has not reached the threshold for restarting large-scale military operations.

5. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Iranian Foreign Minister Alirzae will visit China on May 6 by invitation, and will hold talks with Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs.

1. The main contract for U.S. crude oil closed down 3.51% at $102.68 per barrel; the main contract for Brent crude oil fell 3.61% to $110.31 per barrel.

2. International precious metals futures closed mixed: COMEX gold futures rose 0.76% to $4,567.80 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.35% to $73.27 per ounce.

3. All base metals in London rose: LME aluminum increased 1.48% to $3,574.0 per ton, LME nickel rose 1.39% to $19,635.0 per ton, LME lead gained 1.21% to $1,972.5 per ton, LME tin climbed 0.84% to $49,840.0 per ton, LME copper advanced 0.80% to $13,100.5 per ton, and LME zinc rose 0.42% to $3,358.5 per ton.

4. As of the 2:20 close, U.S. soybeans fell 1.02%, U.S. corn fell 1.24%, U.S. soybean oil rose 0.33%, U.S. soybean meal fell 0.12%, and U.S. wheat fell 1.95%.

1. According to Mysteel, stainless steel welded pipe prices remained stable during the May Day holiday. It is understood that most pipe manufacturers took a break of 3 to 5 days, with resumption of operations concentrated between May 4 and 6. Regarding pricing, market participants largely maintained stable prices and adopted a wait-and-see approach, planning to adjust after resuming operations. Currently, the prevailing quotation for 304 welded pipes is CNY 15,400 per ton, and for 316 welded pipes, it is CNY 29,400 per ton.

2. After the holiday, the cost of ferrosilicon may face a new round of downward expectations, as there have been reports of electricity price reductions in major production areas such as Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia; some provinces have confirmed that transaction electricity prices will decrease in April. If system operation fees do not rise significantly, the electricity price reductions are likely to materialize.

1. Iraq is offering substantial discounts to long-term contract buyers for cargoes loading this month, but tankers must transit the Strait of Hormuz and venture deep into the Persian Gulf to pick up the oil. According to a notice issued by Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO), Iraq is providing discounts of up to $33.40 per barrel on its flagship product, Basrah Medium crude.

2. Maybank IB analyst Ong Chee Ting noted in a report that, even if tensions in the Middle East ease, global fertilizer prices are likely to remain elevated over the next 12 to 24 months due to ongoing market tightness caused by supply disruptions and export restrictions.

3. On the 5th local time, Iran’s Law Enforcement Command’s Border Guard Force announced that, in order to strengthen control over coastal waterways in Khuzestan Province, border personnel learned that two batches of fuel were attempting to exit via confirmed routes, with plans to sell them to intermediaries in countries along the Persian Gulf. Authorities subsequently identified and seized four vessels, confiscating 130,000 liters of smuggled diesel.

4. Aramco reduced the premium for its June Arab Light crude oil posted price to Asia by $4.

1. According to Mysteel’s research, a large alumina plant in Guangxi unexpectedly ceased operations. During the holiday period, the plant began reheating and trial production, involving an annual capacity of approximately 1.1 million tons; currently, one production line has been temporarily restored.

2. On Monday, Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader formally signed an executive order requiring the immediate suspension of all development activities related to the Romero gold-copper project owned by Canada’s GoldQuest Mining.

3. A blast occurred at Kazzinc’s metallurgical plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan, owned by Glencore, resulting in two deaths and five injuries. Kazzinc stated that preliminary information indicates the incident occurred during the cleaning of flue gas extraction equipment, followed by a fire and partial structural collapse. Kazakhstan’s Emergency Ministry reported that the fire has been extinguished. Kazzinc, a Glencore subsidiary, is Kazakhstan’s largest zinc producer and also produces lead, copper, gold, and silver. Kazzinc’s annual metal output is approximately 250,000–300,000 metric tons of zinc, 100,000–150,000 metric tons of lead, and 87,500 metric tons of electrolytic copper.

4. Data from Indonesia’s Central Bureau of Statistics and trade monitoring shows that Indonesia’s aluminum exports in March more than doubled compared to the previous month, reaching the highest level since November 2023. Total unrefined aluminum exports in March amounted to 88,554 tons, up from 33,490 tons in February. Amid aluminum market shortages caused by the Middle East conflict, Indonesia is expected to significantly increase production this year.

1. TBA on May 6, Malaysia SPPOMA palm oil production estimate for May 1-5.

2. On May 6 at 20:15, the U.S. April ADP Employment Number.