April's CPI inflation report could significantly impact Bitcoin's price movement and market volatility this week.
Economists expect the U.S. inflation rate to rise to around 3.7% year-over-year, according to the report to be released in April 2026.
Lower CPI data could revive bullish momentum and push Bitcoin toward the $93,000 resistance zone.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report on May 12, and cryptocurrency traders are preparing for potential sharp volatility. Economists expect inflation to rise again, which could delay the Fed’s rate cut plans and push Bitcoin prices below key support levels.
But if inflation cools down, Bitcoin could quickly rise again to $90,000.
CPI inflation rate is expected to rise again: 3.7%
The market expects the inflation rate in April to be significantly higher than in March.
Economists currently expect the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise, with a projected monthly increase of 0.6% and an annual inflation rate expected to rise from the previous 3.3% to 3.7%.
Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to rise 2.7% year-over-year, with monthly core inflation projected at 0.4%.
Prediction markets also suggest that inflation data will rise. On the Polymarket platform, traders assign a 100% probability to inflation remaining above 3% in 2026 and a 94% probability to it staying above 3.5%.
The April CPI data will be released on Tuesday. Here are the market expectations:
— PredictionMarkets.us (@USPredict)May 6, 2026
• Polymarket: 100% probability of inflation rate exceeding 3% in 2026, 94% probability of exceeding 3.5%.
• Kalshi: Pricing April CPI at a 3.2% year-over-year increase
• Polymarket: The probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady at 0% cuts in 2026 is 55.6%
• The probability of an event occurring in June is 95.5%…
However, some analysts believe inflation may worsen further.
Top analysts expect inflation rates to rise further
Edward's concerns have intensified worries about rising inflation. Warning He believes April's CPI could reach as high as 4.1%. He argues that the U.S. economy is facing growing recession risks, ongoing oil price-driven inflation, and weak consumer demand.
Higher-than-expected CPI data could reinforce the Fed’s stance that interest rates will remain elevated for longer, especially after Jerome Powell recently emphasized that policymakers still need more confidence that inflation is moving toward the 2% target.
What happens to Bitcoin if the CPI data is strong?
If the April CPI report comes in higher than expected, analysts believe the cryptocurrency market could face immediate selling pressure. Traders have warned that if panic selling intensifies, Bitcoin could drop back to the $80,000 level, retesting the key support area at $78,000, and potentially falling again toward the $70,000 range.
Bitcoin has recently failed to sustain its upward momentum above the $82,000 to $84,000 resistance zone, leaving the market particularly sensitive.
If inflation comes in lower than expected, the market may quickly begin to price in this potential impact. Bitcoin could gain upward momentum, moving toward the unfilled gap near $93,000 at the CME and the broader resistance zone between $90,000 and $95,000 closely watched by traders.