BlockBeats report: On May 12, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the U.S. April CPI data at 20:30 Beijing time. The market generally expects an increase of 3.7%, which would be the largest rise since September 2023, further reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged for an extended period.
Two consecutive months of strong inflation data increase the political risks for Trump and the Republican Party before the November midterm elections. Trump’s top campaign promises before returning to the White House in 2024 included lowering inflation, but many Americans are now disappointed with how he has handled the economy, blaming him for rising oil prices. “People now realize that previous claims about lowering the cost of goods and services were nothing but a fairy tale. They were barely keeping their heads above water, just barely able to breathe, and now they’ve been pulled under, unable to catch a single breath.”
According to PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, there is a 46% probability that the April CPI data will be 3.7% and a 35% probability it will be 3.5%.