According to PolyBeats , on the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts that previously accurately predicted the timing of U.S. strikes against Iran have invested $6,100 in betting "Yes" on whether the U.S. and Iran will cease fire before March 31, with the current probability at 8%. One of these accounts previously predicted the exact date of the strike and earned 16 times its investment, while the other accurately bet on the timing of the 2025 "Twelve-Day War" and earned nearly 9 times its investment.
On the evening of March 11, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: "The only way to end this war, instigated by the Zionist regime and the United States, is to recognize Iran's legitimate rights, provide compensation, and offer solid international guarantees to prevent future aggression."
The U.S. government has not yet formally responded to Iran’s aforementioned specific conditions, and its public stance remains focused on demanding that Iran immediately halt military actions and sever substantive support for proxy armed groups in the Middle East.
Note: Based on its past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, and has a history of taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening a position.
Account:
0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9
0xfe6eee00d36717359578ddb4d6e091d56bc9074e
Total investment: $6.1k
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Two accounts invest $6.1k in a prediction market on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by March 31.
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Summary
On-chain data shows two accounts on Polymarket have invested $6,100 in the 'Yes' outcome for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by March 31, with an 8% probability. One account previously predicted a U.S. strike on Iran and earned 16 times its investment, while the other accurately forecast the start of the 'Twelve Days War' in 2025 with nearly nine times returns. On-chain analysis suggests these accounts may have closed positions for profit or loss at various points, indicating strategic trading rather than a firm belief in the event’s occurrence.
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