According to PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts that previously accurately predicted the timing of U.S. strikes against Iran have invested $6,100 on the question "Will the U.S. and Iran reach a ceasefire before March 31?" by betting "Yes," which currently has an 8% probability. One of these accounts previously predicted the exact date of the strikes and earned 16 times its investment, while the other accurately bet on the timing of the 2025 "Twelve-Day War" and earned nearly nine times its investment.
On the evening of March 11, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: "The only way to end this war, instigated by the Zionist regime and the United States, is to recognize Iran's legitimate rights, provide compensation, and offer solid international guarantees to prevent future aggression."
The U.S. government has not yet formally responded to Iran’s aforementioned specific conditions, and its public stance remains focused on demanding that Iran immediately halt military actions and sever substantive support for proxy armed groups in the Middle East.
Note: Based on its past trading profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, and exhibits behavior of taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening a position.
Account:
0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9
0xfe6eee00d36717359578ddb4d6e091d56bc9074e
Total investment: $6.1k
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Two accounts bet $6,100 on an Iran-US ceasefire by March 31 on Polymarket.
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Summary
On-chain data shows two accounts on Polymarket have invested $6,100 in the "Yes" outcome for the question "Will Iran and the US reach a ceasefire by March 31?" with an 8% probability. One account accurately predicted a U.S. strike on Iran and earned 16 times the investment. The other correctly forecast the start of the 'Twelve Days War' in 2025, earning nearly nine times the investment. On-chain analysis suggests these accounts may have taken profits or cut losses at key moments. The Iranian president has called for international recognition of Iran’s rights and guarantees to end the conflict, but the U.S. has not formally responded.
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