Review today's market trends and stay on top of the latest developments. Good morning, listeners. Today is Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!
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Hot Topics Guide
1. CZCE, DCE, SHFE, and SHFE Energy have issued notices regarding adjustments to the trading margin requirements and price limit ranges for certain futures contracts during the 2026 Labor Day holiday.
2. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announces that recently, there have been numerous uncertain factors affecting the urea market. All member units are requested to fully alert investors to these risks, further strengthen investor education, and remind investors to participate in trading in accordance with regulations, prudently and rationally.
3. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), palm oil production in Malaysia from April 1-20 is estimated to have increased by 17.52%.
4. According to SMM, driven by the recent strength in LME nickel prices and stainless steel futures, a leading Indonesian stainless steel producer has announced a halt to trading and pricing over the weekend.
5. From April 20 to April 26, 2026, the total shipment of Australian lithium concentrate from Mysteel to China amounted to 25,000 tons, a decrease of 69,000 tons week-over-week, with a weekly average shipment to China of 69,400 tons.
6. Rezaei, military advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader: No country can stop Iran’s oil exports.
7. According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials said President Trump and his national security team are skeptical of Iran’s latest proposal for an agreement, under which Iran would ensure the openness of the Strait of Hormuz and put discussions about its nuclear program on hold.
8. For the week ending April 26, the U.S. soybean planting rate was 23%, above the market expectation of 22%, compared with 12% the previous week, 17% a year ago, and a five-year average of 12%.
Macro News
1. In an interview broadcast on April 26, Ibrahim Aziz, Chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of Iran’s Islamic Parliament, said that transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz must be settled in Iran’s national currency, the rial, and that any vessels or cargo related to Israel are strictly prohibited from passing through.
2. According to Axios, citing a U.S. official and two informed sources, Iran has proposed a new offer to prioritize an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting maritime sanctions, while deferring nuclear negotiations to a later stage.
3. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of April 27, 2026, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Rate Index (Europe Route) stood at 1,567.20 points, a decrease of 2.7% compared to the previous period.
4. According to Saudi media alhadath: Regional officials say that Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may be rejected by the United States, as the proposal excludes discussions on nuclear issues.
5. CZCE, DCE, SHFE, and SHFE Energy issued notices regarding adjustments to the trading margin requirements and price limit ranges for certain futures contracts during the 2026 Labor Day holiday.
6. Recently, a relevant official from the Ministry of Finance answered questions from reporters regarding Moody’s International Credit Rating Agency’s decision to maintain China’s sovereign credit rating at “A1” and upgrade the outlook to “stable,” expressing appreciation for Moody’s decision to maintain China’s sovereign credit rating and upgrade the outlook to “stable.”
7. According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials said President Trump and his national security team are skeptical of Iran’s latest proposal for an agreement, under which Iran would ensure the openness of the Strait of Hormuz and put discussions about its nuclear program on hold.
Global futures market volatility
1. The main contract for U.S. crude oil rose 2.42% to close at $96.68 per barrel; the main contract for Brent crude oil increased 2.86% to close at $101.97 per barrel. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have completely stalled, with oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remaining restricted, preventing large volumes of oil from entering international markets and effectively halting Iranian crude exports. Combined with rising expectations of production cuts in the Middle East, geopolitical risk premiums have pushed oil prices higher.
2. International precious metals futures generally closed lower; COMEX gold futures fell 0.91% to $4,697.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures dropped 1.25% to $75.46 per ounce. Markets await policy signals from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting, with cautious sentiment prevailing; although geopolitical risk aversion and central bank gold purchases provide price support, short-term policy expectations are pressuring the market.
3. Most base metals in London ended lower; LME nickel rose 0.66% to $19,140.0/ton, LME lead rose 0.05% to $1,963.5/ton, LME aluminum fell 0.50% to $3,573.0/ton, LME copper fell 0.62% to $13,226.5/ton, LME tin fell 1.77% to $49,440.0/ton, and LME zinc fell 2.23% to $3,395.0/ton.
4. As of the close at 23:00 on April 27, the majority of domestic futures main contracts rose, with asphalt up over 3%, fuel oil up over 2%, and 20-number rubber, PET, rubber, rapeseed meal, liquefied gas, and propylene up over 1%. On the downside, glass fell over 2%, BR rubber and caustic soda fell over 1%.
Black Series Hot News
1. On the 27th, China’s main railway line for transporting coal from the west to the east, the Datong–Qinhuangdao Railway, completed its 2026 spring major maintenance three days ahead of schedule, laying a solid equipment foundation for the summer peak demand period. The major maintenance lasted 27 days; according to reports, the Datong–Qinhuangdao Railway transports approximately 400 million tons of coal annually, and during the construction period, daily freight volume still reached 1 million tons.
2. According to Mysteel, the total global iron ore shipment from April 20 to April 26 was 32.501 million tons, an increase of 1.762 million tons环比. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 25.934 million tons, an increase of 0.574 million tons环比. Shipments from Australia amounted to 19.095 million tons, an increase of 0.732 million tons环比, of which 16.975 million tons were shipped to China, an increase of 2.322 million tons环比.
3. According to China News Service, Zhang Xing, Deputy Director of the General Office of the National Energy Administration of China, stated in Beijing on the 27th that China’s domestic coal market is generally characterized by “slight price increases, adequate inventories, and stable supply and demand,” with coal playing a significant role in ensuring energy security. Since April, the daily average dispatched coal production nationwide has remained at a high level of over 12.5 million metric tons. Data from April 23 showed that coal stocks at nationwide regulated power plants reached 190 million metric tons, sufficient for 32 days—among the highest levels in history.
4. According to Mysteel data, from April 20 to April 26, 2026, the total iron ore arrivals at China’s 47 ports amounted to 23.656 million tons, an increase of 176,000 tons环比; the total iron ore arrivals at China’s 45 ports amounted to 22.785 million tons, a decrease of 358,000 tons环比.
5. According to Iranian state media, Iran has suspended the export of billets and steel plates until May 30.
Agricultural Products Hot News
1. The National Center for Grain and Oil Information expects soybean crushing volume for the month to be around 7 million metric tons, a decrease of approximately 1.3 million metric tons month-over-month, but an increase of approximately 1.6 million metric tons year-over-year, and about 300,000 metric tons above the three-year average for the same period.
2. According to data from the shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1-25 amounted to 1,192,798 tons, a 15.7% decrease compared to 1,414,990 tons during the same period last month.
3. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), palm oil production in Malaysia from April 1-20 is estimated to have increased by 17.52%. Production in Peninsular Malaysia rose 20.76% month-over-month, Sabah increased by 11.61%, Sarawak by 19.62%, and East Malaysia by 13.82%.
4. According to Malaysia’s independent inspection agency AmSpec, palm oil exports from Malaysia between April 1 and 25 amounted to 1,155,770 tons, a 16.8% decrease compared to 1,389,549 tons during the same period last month.
5. According to Xinhua News Agency, the draft amendment to the Agricultural Law was submitted for its first review at the 22nd meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People’s Congress on April 27. This revision aims to further consolidate and strengthen agriculture’s foundational role in the national economy, uphold a comprehensive perspective on agriculture and food, promote high-quality agricultural development, advance comprehensive rural revitalization, and accelerate the construction of a strong agricultural nation.
6. According to data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1-25 are estimated at 667,091 tons, a 38.28% decrease compared to 1,080,898 tons during the same period last month.
7. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, for the week ending April 23, 2026, U.S. soybean export inspections amounted to 628,826 metric tons, U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1,644,191 metric tons, and U.S. wheat export inspections reached 365,156 metric tons.
8. As of April 27, the port inventory of imported soybeans nationwide was 8.15601 million metric tons, compared to 8.14428 million metric tons on April 20, an increase of 11,730 metric tons month-over-month.
9. According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA), from April 1-25, 2026, Malaysia’s palm oil yield increased by 59.49% month-over-month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.12% month-over-month, and production increased by 60.12% month-over-month.
10. According to foreign media, a report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that Indonesia’s palm oil production for the 2026/27 season could reach 48 million metric tons, an approximate 3% increase from last year and higher than the previous year’s 46.7 million metric tons.
11. According to CONAB, Brazil’s National Supply Company under the Ministry of Agriculture, as of April 25, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil reached 92.1%, up from 88.1% last week, compared to 94.8% during the same period last year and matching the five-year average of 92.1%.
12. According to the weekly crop progress report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) early Tuesday, as of the week ending April 26, the U.S. soybean planting rate was 23%, above the market expectation of 22%, compared with 12% the previous week, 17% for the same period last year, and a five-year average of 12%; the emergence rate was 8%, up from 0% the prior week, 2% last year, and a five-year average of 1%.
Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News
1. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has announced that recently, there have been numerous uncertain factors affecting the urea market, leading to increased price volatility in urea futures. All member units are requested to fully alert investors to these risks, further strengthen investor education, and remind investors to participate in trading in accordance with regulations, prudently and rationally.
2. As of April 27, 2026, this week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers amounted to 1.8143 million tons, a decrease of 53,300 tons from last Thursday, or a 2.85% decline. Of this, light soda ash inventory was 918,200 tons, down by 200 tons week-over-week, while heavy soda ash inventory stood at 896,100 tons, down by 53,100 tons week-over-week.
3. According to SMM, starting April 28, a major alumina plant in Shandong adjusted the receiving price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda, reducing it by 20 yuan/ton from 590 yuan/ton; this results in a two-invoice ex-factory price of 570 yuan/ton (equivalent to approximately 1,781 yuan/ton on a pure basis).
4. According to foreign media, UNICA stated on Monday that Brazil plans to increase the mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline from 30% to 32%, which will raise annual ethanol demand by approximately 1 billion liters.
5. Rezaei, military advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader: No country can stop Iran’s oil exports.
Metal Hot News
1. According to SMM, driven by the recent strength in LME nickel prices and stainless steel futures, a leading Indonesian stainless steel producer has announced a halt in trading and suspended pricing over the weekend. According to SMM research, this move aims to address the rapid rise in raw material costs and prepare for a new round of price increases.
2. The No. 2 electrolysis line at Norðurál’s smelter in Grundartangi, Iceland, operated by Century Aluminum, has resumed production several months ahead of schedule. The smelter has already started the first pots on the No. 2 electrolysis line and will continue accelerating the restart of the remaining pots, aiming to approach full-capacity production by the end of July.
3. According to data from Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade, refined tin exports in March 2026 amounted to 4,655.03 tons, an increase of 28.08% month-over-month but a decrease of 19.47% year-over-year; cumulative refined tin exports for the first quarter of 2026 totaled 10,943.33 tons, a decrease of 2.93% year-over-year.
4. From April 20 to April 26, 2026, the total shipment of Australian lithium concentrate from Mysteel to China amounted to 25,000 tons, a decrease of 69,000 tons week-over-week, with a weekly average shipment to China of 69,400 tons.
5. According to data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global alumina production in March 2026 was 12.647 million tons, compared to 12.778 million tons in the same period last year and a revised figure of 11.816 million tons for the previous month. Alumina production in China for March is estimated at 7.530 million tons, compared to a revised figure of 7.050 million tons for the previous month.
6. According to Mysteel’s research, the latest tender price for alumina in the Xinjiang region is RMB 3,010–3,020 per ton (ex-factory price), with supply from northern regions.
Praise the “Futures” Talk — Unveiling the Trading Logic of Assets!
1. Supply disruptions continue, with lithium carbonate breaking through the 180,000 threshold!
Everbright Futures stated that after last week’s adjustment, lithium carbonate opened sharply higher on Monday and remained strongly mixed, with an intraday peak gain exceeding 3%, successfully breaking above the 180,000 mark. According to weekend news from CCTV, multiple regions in Mali were hit by coordinated attacks by extremist and separatist groups on the 25th, potentially raising market concerns over lithium carbonate supply. Previously, lithium carbonate supply has shown some vulnerability: resource supply from Zimbabwe has largely concluded, and based on a three-month cycle, the earliest arrival is expected in July; entering May–June, lithium mining projects in Jiangxi may face permit renewal cycles, further tightening domestic supply. Amid ongoing supply disruptions, lithium carbonate is likely to remain strongly supported in the short term.
2. Alumina surges on news-driven momentum, but the rally is expected to be short-lived.
Xinhu Futures stated that last Friday, news emerged that Guinea plans to reduce its bauxite exports in 2026 to 150 million tons, a nearly 19% decrease from 185 million tons in 2025. Although the Guinean Ministry of Mines and Geology has not yet officially announced this information, the rumor triggered a sharp rally in alumina futures, with the main contract rising to 2,920 yuan per ton, intraday peaking over 4%, while the market showed a reduction in open interest alongside price gains. Despite the futures surge, alumina spot prices remained unchanged in recent days, staying largely stable due to current oversupply conditions. Although output has slightly declined recently due to production cuts at individual plants caused by calcination equipment failures, overall production still far exceeds consumption. Alumina inventories remain elevated, with Shanghai Steel Exchange data showing total inventories exceeding 5.9 million tons—a record high. New capacities recently commissioned in Guangxi are gradually coming online and will continue to add supply, with over 2 million tons of additional capacity scheduled for commissioning in the second quarter. Although operational aluminum smelting capacity has also increased somewhat, the net increase in annual operational capacity is only around 700,000 tons. Without significant production cuts in alumina, the oversupply situation is unlikely to change, and alumina prices will remain under sustained pressure. The recent rally on the futures market is expected to be short-lived.
Today's key futures data and events overview
1. On April 28 at 20:00, Conab will release the first survey results for Brazil’s 2026/27 sugarcane production;
2. Weekly change in ADP employment numbers for the week ending April 11, from the United States, on April 28 at 20:15.