Trump’s Conflict Playbook Enters Stage 9 as U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Approaches

Original author: Zhao Ying

Source: Wall Street Journal

The达成 of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is unfolding precisely according to a well-tested script.

The Kobeissi Letter, an independent macro research firm in the United States, recently stated that with Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States, Iran, and Israel, the ninth step of its tracked "conflict script"—the agreement and construction of the narrative framework—has officially been reached, arriving approximately 10 days later than the firm’s prior expectation.

The Kobeissi Letter states that, according to Trump's playbook, every major confrontation within the Trump framework ultimately ends with a narrative of "extreme pressure for concessions."

This development cannot be ignored in terms of its potential impact on the market. The Kobeissi Letter notes that Step Ten—the market's violent repricing following the protocol's official announcement—will occur in the coming weeks. At that time, investors who have maintained defensive positions will face pressure to quickly close their positions, potentially triggering a sharp rally in equities, while oil prices may plunge rapidly as expectations for the reopening of shipping routes solidify.

According to CCTV News, according to Iranian sources local time on the morning of the 8th, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited delegations from Iran and the United States to negotiate in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. Shehbaz Sharif also stated that the ceasefire between Iran and the United States will take effect at 3:30 a.m. Iranian time (8:00 a.m. Beijing time) on the 8th. Trump said this ceasefire window will be used to "finalize and facilitate" the signing of a lasting peace agreement among all parties.

The Kobeissi Letter draws a parallel between this two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran and Trump’s April 2025 announcement of a "90-day tariff pause," arguing that the two are highly similar in nature.

On April 9, 2025, amid severe volatility in the bond market, Trump announced a 90-day pause on imposing additional tariffs on most trading partners. In the weeks that followed, the U.S.-China trade agreement was swiftly implemented, and the market did not retest its previous lows. The Kobeissi Letter noted that this ceasefire announcement occurred almost exactly one year after the aforementioned tariff pause.

The institution believes this pattern is no coincidence. Since taking office in January 2025, Trump has consistently applied the same negotiation logic on tariffs, Venezuela, Greenland, and Iran: applying verbal pressure, pushing to the brink to extract concessions, and ultimately concluding with a "deal."

According to The Kobeissi Letter's 10-step "conflict script," the ninth step centers on reaching an agreement and constructing the narrative framework.

The institution noted that every major confrontation within Trump's framework ultimately concluded with a narrative of "extreme pressure for concessions," whether in trade agreements with China, the EU, or India, corporate negotiations in sectors like semiconductors and rare earths, or the multiple conflicts Trump helped end in 2025—all of which confirmed this pattern.

On the issue of Iran, The Kobeissi Letter argues that if the Iranian government does not collapse, the final agreement may involve a ceasefire tied to nuclear issues, a regional security framework with accompanying enforcement mechanisms, or a sanctions adjustment scheme conditioned on compliance benchmarks. The institution emphasizes that "the importance of the specific architecture pales in comparison to timing and narrative framing."

The Kobeissi Letter warns investors that market repricing following protocol announcements is often sudden rather than gradual.

The reason is that market participants are currently in defensive positions—exposure to energy is high, equity risk has been compressed, and volatility remains elevated due to implicit uncertainty. Once this uncertainty dissipates abruptly, these positions will be unwound rapidly, creating a concentrated market shock.

The institution cites historical cases from April, August, and October 2025, and January 2026, noting that each time a tariff pause or framework agreement was announced, the stock market surged sharply, while oil prices dropped rapidly as expectations for the reopening of shipping routes solidified. The Kobeissi Letter concludes: "Pattern recognition has extremely high profit potential in this market."