ChainThink reports that on March 16, according to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials said the Trump administration plans to announce as early as this week that several countries have agreed to form a coalition to provide escort services for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, discussions are ongoing regarding whether these operations should commence before or after the cessation of Iranian hostilities. The White House declined to comment. Given the associated risks, multiple countries remain noncommittal about participating in the escort mission until the U.S.-Iran conflict ends.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability that the U.S. will escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31 is currently 39% on the prediction market Polymarket.
U.S. naval escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz face multiple constraints; despite repeated statements, the U.S. has been slow to act, revealing its reluctance and limited options on this issue. The narrowest point of the Strait is less than 40 kilometers wide, and coastal water depths generally do not exceed 25 meters—constraints that diminish the U.S. military’s technological advantages. Meanwhile, Iran retains a variety of coastal harassment and attack capabilities, including drones and missiles. A single low-cost drone costs only $35,000, while intercepting one can cost the U.S. between $500,000 and $4 million. Iran holds the upper hand in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the United States with no good alternatives.