BlockBeats report: On March 4, following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East driving up oil prices, U.S. President Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would provide escort protection for oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, along with political risk insurance backed by financial guarantees from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, emphasizing that the United States will ensure the free flow of global energy regardless of how the situation escalates. After the announcement, U.S. crude oil prices retreated from above $77 to around $73, but concerns over further conflict escalation and retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure remain unresolved.
Although the Strait of Hormuz remains technically open, soaring insurance costs and some tankers avoiding the route have already impacted transportation efficiency. Analysts note that implementing escort and insurance mechanisms will take time; if Iran continues missile, drone, or mine-laying actions, the recovery of energy supply chains could be measured in weeks. Rising oil prices have begun to transmit to gasoline prices and inflation expectations, prompting markets to reassess the impact of higher oil prices on monetary policy and global growth.
Geopolitical risks are simultaneously impacting risk assets. Foreign capital has significantly withdrawn from Asian markets this week, with South Korean and Taiwanese semiconductor stocks leading the declines, showing signs of concentrated unwinding of crowded long positions in AI. As oil prices elevate inflation expectations, markets are beginning to question the sustainability of capital flows into high-valuation sectors, prompting a shift toward defensive and risk-averse asset allocations.
In the crypto market, BTC price rapidly rose from around $65,000 to above $70,000 before pulling back, forming a classic "liquidity sweep" structure. The $69,500–$70,500 range remains the primary zone of concentrated short positions and liquidity accumulation. Long leveraged positions below $68,000 have largely been liquidated, while a secondary liquidity band still persists near $64,000.
This indicates that the market has completed the first phase of "clearing longs," and the current focus shifts to whether further pressure will be applied to upside short positions. If the price tests above $69,000 multiple times but fails to sustainably hold above this level, this zone will become the core short-term resistance, potentially leading the market back into range-bound consolidation. However, if the price breaks through with increased volume and absorbs liquidity above $69,800, it will trigger forced covering of short positions and amplify volatility.
Overall, macro-level energy and inflation risks are increasing market volatility, but BTC’s structure remains primarily characterized by liquidity sweeps within a range; the key lies in whether the long positions above have been fully liquidated.