On July 21, according to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett citing sources, President Trump agreed to include ethics provisions in the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Structure Act), with the White House reaching consensus on the ethics framework of the CLARITY Act, removing the last major obstacle to this months-long crypto regulatory legislation. The bill text could be released as early as the same day, though it may be slightly delayed; as of the report, Democrats had not yet seen the specific text.
After the announcement, the probability on Polymarket that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law by 2026 rebounded to 43%. Research firm Galaxy Research previously assessed the likelihood of its passage within 2026 as roughly even.
Previously, on July 16, Trump met with Republican senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, along with White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt, but no agreement was reached at the time. The deal was ultimately finalized by the president himself on Monday evening. The provision aims to restrict federal officials—including the president, vice president, and members of Congress—from profiting from digital assets during their tenure. The central point of contention has revolved around the Trump family’s meme tokens and World Liberty Financial. Financial documents disclosed last month revealed that Trump’s crypto earnings reached approximately $1.4 billion, which previously stalled negotiations.
The final stretch before the August recess
If enacted into law, the CLARITY Act would establish the first comprehensive federal regulation of the digital assets industry, clearly defining the jurisdictional responsibilities of the SEC and the CFTC.
The U.S. House of Representatives previously passed the bill with a bipartisan majority of 294 to 134 in 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee approved it on May 14 of this year by a vote of 15 to 9. It is currently stalled in final negotiations before a full chamber vote.
The bill text is expected to be released in the coming days, after which it will proceed to a full Senate vote; the window closes before the Senate’s first-week recess in August (the Senate will go into recess on August 7 and resume on September 14). If passed, it must return to the House for reconsideration and reconciliation of text before being sent to the President for signature.
In mid-July, the Senate vote count tightened temporarily. Following a visit to Ukraine, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina died suddenly on the night of July 11 at age 71 from an aortic dissection, reducing the Republican seat count in the Senate from 53 to 52.
According to the Associated Press, two days later, Governor Henry McMaster appointed Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nordone, who was sworn in on July 14, filling the seat immediately.
However, Republican Senator Mitch McConnell has been absent from votes since his hospitalization on June 14, and as of July 12, he stated he was not yet ready to return to the Senate; no further updates on his potential return have been provided since then.
Under the cloture procedure of Senate Rule 22, if Mitch McConnell is still absent at that time, the bill will need at least eight additional Democratic votes beyond the actual number of Republican votes present to pass.
Trump previously posted on Truth Social, urging the Senate to swiftly pass the CLARITY Act, stating that this move is in honor of the late Senator Lindsey Graham and emphasizing that it is also about preventing China from gaining dominance in digital finance and artificial intelligence.
Personnel changes at the White House level also reflect the urgency of the push. Cryptocurrency advisor Patrick Witt was originally scheduled to step away this week for mandatory training with the Georgia Army National Guard, but the training has been postponed, allowing him to remain in his role to advance legislation; his deputy, Harry Jung, has announced he will leave in two weeks.
The "one-code line" or "the elephant in the room"?
The industry lobby's position is straightforward. Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association and former CFTC commissioner, said on July 16 at the Injective Summit in Washington, D.C., that the bill’s core provisions are “very close to agreement, with only a few details left to finalize,” and called ethical issues the “elephant in the room”—the biggest current obstacle.
She spoke to Congress: “Whatever decision you make on the ethics provisions is not something we care about—that’s politics, that’s Congress, that’s elected officials’ business. But please don’t let it undermine all the effort we’ve put into the rest of the bill.”
Ryan VanGrack, Vice President of Coinbase and former SEC official, stated more bluntly on CNBC in mid-July: “The CLARITY Act is at the one-yard line, and the momentum for passage is clear.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune offered a more cautious assessment: “There is indeed a path to an agreement, but time is running out.”
These statements essentially mean the same thing: We don’t care how you write the ethical clauses, just don’t hold back the other parts.
The criticism has primarily come from the Democratic side, targeting the inadequacy of the ethics provisions themselves. On July 14, Senator Chris Murphy posted on Facebook criticizing the CLARITY Act as "a bill backed by the crypto industry aimed at expanding its influence over the banking system and the broader economy," and explicitly demanded that "the bill must include provisions prohibiting the president and their family members from issuing cryptocurrencies during their term—whether meme tokens or stablecoins... Ethics provisions must cover the president and their immediate family members."
Senators Warren, Jack Reed, Chris Van Hollen, and others jointly stated in mid-July that they "cannot support the current version of the CLARITY Act," citing the need for stronger consumer protections, stricter conflict-of-interest and ethics rules, and greater safeguards against crypto fraud and market manipulation. Senator Mark Warner bluntly stated, "I am very pessimistic about the progress."
Whales, ETFs, and Crypto Treasury Movements
On-chain whales: According to CryptoQuant data as of July 20, addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC net accumulated approximately 66,700 BTC over 60 days—the strongest buying surge since mid-February. During the same period, medium-sized addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC sold approximately 77,800 BTC. Data provided by Bitfinex analysts to CoinDesk shows that in the first two weeks of July, whale addresses collectively accumulated over 270,000 BTC, valued at approximately $16.7 billion.
Spot ETF: According to SoSoValue’s weekly data, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced eight consecutive weeks of net outflows starting the week of May 15, with the largest outflow of $1.79 billion occurring the week of June 26. Net inflows resumed the week of July 10 at $197 million, followed by another net inflow of $756.7 million the week of July 17.
Ethereum spot ETFs moved almost in sync: both experienced eight consecutive weeks of net outflows from May 15 to July 2, then turned to net inflows on July 10 and 17, at $84.42 million and $105 million, respectively.
Crypto Treasury: Strategy’s BTC holdings remain at approximately 844,000 BTC, with no additional purchases over the past two weeks. In mid-July, the company raised $263.5 million in cash through a share issuance but did not immediately increase its BTC position, instead using the funds as a buffer for preferred dividend and interest payments. Japanese publicly listed company Metaplanet increased its BTC holdings by 2,823 BTC in Q2, bringing its total to 43,000 BTC—ranking third globally among public companies. On July 21, its subsidiary secured approximately $59.5 million in convertible bond financing, with plans to continue purchasing BTC.
Last week, BitMine increased its ETH holdings by 7,430 ETH, bringing its total holdings to 5.777468 million ETH, approximately 4.8% of ETH’s total supply. Of this, 85% has been staked, generating an annualized staking yield of about $247 million. During the same period, the company repurchased approximately 5.5 million common shares at an average price of $15.62. Tom Lee noted that the purchase pace has slowed as a result, but weekly增持 has remained uninterrupted since the reserve strategy was initiated on June 30, 2025.
Arthur Hayes: According to Ember Monitoring, on July 15, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes purchased 1,293 ETH for 2.5 million USDC at a price of $1,933; on July 20, he bought an additional $2.5 million worth of ETH through FalconX and Cumberland OTC at $1,876. In total, he spent 5 million USDC to acquire 2,625.7 ETH, with an average cost of $1,904. Hayes previously stated that the AI sector is absorbing market liquidity, putting short-term pressure on BTC, but once liquidity returns, the crypto market still has room for a rebound.