Original title: Tom Lee’s 2026 Investment Core Logic: “Companies Selling Scarce Assets Are Crushing the Market”
Original author: Chris Lee
Tom Lee, one of Wall Street’s most accurate bulls and founder of Fundstrat and manager of the Granny Shots fund, recently stated that the single most crucial investment keyword for the market in 2026 is “scarcity.” He bluntly said, “Companies selling scarce assets are crushing the market.” This statement, though simple, encapsulates a complete stock-picking logic, macroeconomic outlook, and deep bets on Federal Reserve policy and geopolitics.
I. Core Definition and Logic of Scarce Assets
Tom Lee's definition of "scarce assets" is not traditional scarce items like gold or collectibles, but rather products or services with severely constrained supply and explosive demand growth. This structural supply-demand mismatch grants sellers strong pricing power, driving excess returns.
He highlighted three key scarce directions:
1. AI Computing Power: Companies such as NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel. Training and inference of large AI models require massive quantities of GPUs and acceleration chips; however, the expansion of TSMC’s advanced processes, CoWoS packaging, and other capacities faces physical limits. According to relevant reports, the shortage in the AI chip supply chain is expected to persist until at least the end of 2026.
2. AI Memory (HBM - High Bandwidth Memory): Manufacturers include Micron and SanDisk. In AI servers, HBM is a bottleneck as critical as GPUs; its manufacturing process is complex, and yield improvements are slow, with capacity already fully reserved by giants like NVIDIA.
3. Energy Infrastructure: Companies such as GE Vernova (GEV). The power demand from data centers is exploding, with North American data center electricity consumption projected to account for 9-10% of total generation by 2030 (up from only 3-4% in 2025). Delivery cycles for large equipment like gas turbines and transformers can last 2-3 years, making capacity expansion extremely slow.
The demand driven by the AI revolution is explosive, while supply-side constraints—physical, technological, and temporal—cannot quickly catch up. This supply-demand imbalance is not a short-term phenomenon but a structural opportunity spanning 2026. As a result, these companies enjoy high gross margins and strong pricing power, delivering performance and stock returns far exceeding market averages. This is precisely the core strategy of the Granny Shots fund—focusing on companies that sell scarce goods. The fund’s AUM has surpassed $4 billion, with capital actively flowing in.
II. Macroeconomic Context and Practical Trading Framework
Tom Lee emphasized that the market is currently in a "fog of war," with ongoing geopolitical risks. However, he observed that oil prices appear to have peaked and provided a clear trading framework: when oil prices decline, buy assets negatively correlated with oil, including the S&P 500, Ethereum, and the Mag7.
The logic is this: falling oil prices → reduced inflationary pressure → increased expectations of Fed rate cuts → benefits for growth stocks and risk assets. While war may push oil prices higher, a peak and subsequent decline in oil prices can instead serve as a positive signal to buy growth stocks. This provides investors with a practical guide for contrarian positioning in an uncertain environment.
Three: Strong Earnings Report and Full-Year Market Outlook
This earnings season has been exceptionally strong: 87% of companies that have reported earnings have exceeded expectations by an average of 19%. Tom Lee notes that this level of earnings growth, typically seen in emerging markets, is occurring in the U.S., driven primarily by the productivity revolution brought about by AI.
Market path assessment:
The S&P 500 has reached the year-end target of 7,300, but **now is not the time to sell**.
Mid-year may see a "bear-market-like" pullback, driven by factors such as the market testing the new Fed chair or prolonged geopolitical conflicts.
A rebound is expected after the callback, with the full-year target raised to at least 7,700 points, maintaining an overall bullish outlook.
He specifically warned: The Mag7, cryptocurrency, and software sectors have already experienced a bear-market-like correction earlier; investors should not chase prices at 7,300, nor panic during pullbacks—pullbacks are ideal opportunities to add to scarce assets.
Four, Topic Ranking and Practical Implications
Tom Lee ranks the investment themes as follows:
1. Global labor shortage + AI (top priority): Aging populations are driving up labor costs, compelling businesses to replace human workers with AI and automation—a structural trend spanning a decade.
2. Cybersecurity + Energy Security (Second Priority): Geopolitical tensions are prompting countries to increase investment in related infrastructure.
3. Seasonal factors.
The performance of Granny stocks over the past week also validates this framework: Qantas, Google, Caterpillar, Tesla, and AMD, which posted the strongest gains, all align with the scarcity logic; while some short-term pullbacks (such as GE Vernova and Sofi) were primarily due to guidance falling short of market hyper-optimism—normal fluctuations that do not alter the long-term trend.
Conclusion: The investment key for 2026 is "scarcity"
Tom Lee’s full logic chain is clear and compelling: AI-driven structural demand + supply constraints = pricing power and excess returns for scarce assets. Amid macro uncertainty, oil prices peaking is a signal for growth stocks, a mid-year pullback is an opportunity to add positions, and the S&P 500 could challenge 7,700 for the full year.
For investors, the real insight is not simply chasing price increases, but shifting mindset: from “what’s rising” to “why it’s rising.” Only by identifying companies with constrained supply and exploding demand can you achieve sustained outperformance by 2026. Scarcity is not a concept—it’s a tangible, fundamental constraint of supply and demand—and this is the most important investment framework Tom Lee has left for the market.