Block Research 2026 Predictions: IPOs May Outperform Token Launches

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | jk

Well-known cryptocurrency research institution The Block Research, as customary, released its annual forecast report at the beginning of the new year. As one of the earliest professional research teams established in the industry, The Block Research is renowned for its...In-depth data analysis and reliable market insightsThey have significant influence within the industry. This year, their analyst team has once again set numerous goals:Bitcoin to surge to $140,000, stablecoin market cap to exceed $500 billion, Polymarket and Base to launch tokens and enter the top ten, multiple crypto companies to go public via IPO, and more.Interestingly, analysts do not completely agree. Some are optimistic about a small bull market in 2026, while others believe the market will continue to be divided.

This forecast report,It is composed of the independent opinions of everyone.Let's take a look at what the top researchers in the industry have to say; remember to come back at year-end to see who ends up being proven wrong!

Tom Lee's Bitmine will sell ETH for the first time before the end of the first quarter of 2026. This sell-off will act as a catalyst, prompting more Digital Asset Trust (DAT) treasuries to follow suit, further dampening market sentiment.

Bitcoin's market dominance will remain above 50% throughout the year.

Polymarket and Base are about to launch their tokens, and their fully diluted valuations could potentially place them among the top ten in market capitalization.

The Base ecosystem will see a surge of mobile-first crypto applications. The market will experience several waves of small-scale hot trends similar to those in 2025, including the RWA (Real-World Assets) sector, prediction market sector, and mobile-focused projects.

Tether, in conjunction with other organizations, will launch a cryptocurrency exchange in the United States.

Robinhood will launch cryptocurrency perpetual contracts.

The velocity of stablecoin circulation will experience a surge, primarily driven by regulated payment institutions adopting stablecoins for clearing and settlement. The total market capitalization of stablecoins will exceed $400 billion, although USDT's market share will decline somewhat. The number of stablecoins with a market capitalization exceeding $1 billion will reach 20. The total value of non-stablecoin real-world assets (RWA) will surpass $30 billion. In addition to gold, other commodities will also be tokenized and gain a certain level of market acceptance.

Decentralized perpetual contract exchanges will launch perpetual contracts for stocks and commodities, generating significant trading volume. Whether for spot or perpetual contracts, the trading volume ratio between DEXs (Decentralized Exchanges) and CEXs (Centralized Exchanges) will stabilize around 20%. DEXs based on the Request for Quote (RFQ) model will emerge prominently.

The annual trading volume of Polymarket and Kalshi has at least tripled,The two companies will fiercely compete for an exclusive partnership.At least one of them will launch its own blockchain.

Plasma will rank among the top four public blockchains in TVL (Total Value Locked) due to its genuine on-chain activity, making it one of the few enterprise-grade blockchains with real organic growth. Base and MetaMask will launch their native tokens. Multiple leading crypto companies, including Kraken, BitGo, and ConsenSys, will initiate IPOs, once again drawing attention from mainstream capital. Strategy and BitMine will not sell their holdings of BTC and ETH.

Bitcoin will break through $140,000.Although Bitcoin's market share will decline, it will not drop significantly below 50%.

Bitcoin will reach a new high in the second quarter.

NFT and memecoin launch platforms will not make a comeback.

The concept of privacy will gradually fade from the market.

The four-year cycle theory will be disproven by the end of the year.

The trading price of DAT will continue to trade below the adjusted net asset value (mNAV), forcing many funds to sell assets.As crypto ETFs become more accessible and offer better risk-return profiles, the appeal of DAT's story will gradually diminish.

Massive token unlocks combined with weak market sentiment will subject tokens issued in this cycle to continuous selling pressure. Short-sighted buyback and burn strategies can instead become a burden for project teams when market sentiment deteriorates and cash reserves decline.

Valuation for fundraising will be significantly lower than this year's levels. Many venture capital firms will learn lessons from their previous high-valuation investments—although these may seem relatively affordable compared to earlier cycles, valuations will continue to decline as the industry matures and the hype subsides.

Native tokens will find it difficult to attract buyers.Because stablecoins are becoming the most attractive and widely used asset class in DeFi, on-chain activities are accelerating from being priced in ETH and SOL to being priced in USDC.

The 2026 recovery will follow a "K-shaped" pattern: low-quality projects will lose market attention, while capital and focus will concentrate on high-quality projects with genuine paying users.

Outstanding performance was observed in the decentralized perpetual contract exchange and prediction market sectors.

Cryptocurrency projects are increasingly postponing token launches and instead opting for an IPO route.Similarly, high-quality DAT will continue to explore on-chain application scenarios, while other funds are forced to sell tokens under the pressure of continuously declining net asset values.

Due to the difficulty山寨 coins face in maintaining their market positions, Bitcoin's market share is expected to rise by 2026, with capital flowing into listed crypto companies. Crypto stocks will continue to perform strongly, driven by business diversification (e.g., mining companies transitioning to AI computing power, exchanges launching stock trading, etc.). Despite volatility, Bitcoin is expected to outperform the Nasdaq in 2026. Outside the crypto space, a U.S.-led gold sell-off will signal the bottoming of the U.S. Dollar Index.

The rise of deposit tokens issued by banks in 2026 will lead to the fragmentation of institutional liquidity across proprietary ledgers of different banks (e.g., competition between JPM Coin and Citi Coin). Since global banks are structurally unable to hold large amounts of liabilities from their competitors, USDC will emerge as the dominant neutral bridging asset. Much of USDC's growth in 2026 will stem from its value as a settlement tool between isolated banking networks.

Agent-to-Agent (A2A) transactions will be standardized on the x402 protocol and will account for a significant portion of global on-chain activities.

Cryptocurrency "Greek letter" derivatives, such as implied volatility products (e.g., BTCVOL-PERP) or funding rate swaps, will gain market favor in 2026.

The beginning of 2026 will be slow, with the first half of the year characterized by a range-bound market. High risk premiums and capital selectivity will result in the best performances from major cryptocurrencies. The consistent winners will be those with real users and sustained product usage, especially wallets and trading platforms, which can continue to attract users even if token performance is weak. The second half of the year will be more bullish overall, with a small number of ecosystems and projects capturing most of the new capital inflows. The strongest buying pressure will come from new consumer products that effectively combine risk management with solid fundamentals.

Cross-chain interoperability has become the main theme of the year, with improvements in cross-chain routing and chain abstraction enabling "super apps" to gain market share. Real-World Assets (RWA) have made progress through tokenized stocks, equity perpetual contracts, and credit products, while traditional finance continues to advance internally or permissioned distributed ledger technologies. This has intensified the divergence between "true cryptocurrencies" (serving as high-risk testing grounds for new mechanisms and markets) and enterprise-grade DLT settlement systems.

Better execution, tools, and automation are further concentrating arbitrage opportunities among professional institutions. Stablecoin supply is growing rapidly, with the U.S. dollar still dominant, but the Swiss franc and Singapore dollar show the strongest growth from small bases. Prediction markets are compounding during the U.S. midterm elections, while the risk of a messy insider trading investigation is also rising.

Bitcoin's market share remains above 50%. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will not exceed $4 trillion. ETF fund flows for all cryptocurrencies maintain a net inflow throughout the year. ETF trading volume for tokens other than BTC and ETH will reach $20 billion. The adoption of stablecoins continues to grow, with traditional enterprises launching new stablecoins, while existing stablecoins will also continue to expand.

Prediction markets are the fastest-growing crypto application by 2026, with open interest reaching $500 million and trading volume accounting for 3% of CEX total volume. These platforms will issue tokens to actively attract users. Thanks to technological advancements, decentralized derivatives trading volume will continue to grow, reaching 25% of centralized derivatives trading volume.

NFTs will not make a comeback by 2026, and the trading volume in the NFT market will continue to decline.

The prediction market is expected to continue being one of the strongest narratives in the crypto space, while other concepts that dominated the market over the past two years, such as memecoins and various launch platforms, will lose momentum.

Even as ETFs and other financial instruments continue to attract attention from both institutional and retail investors, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies will find it difficult to continue making new all-time highs amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

Stablecoins will continue to be the strongest narrative for attracting new users into the crypto space, with major players either launching their own stablecoins or forming partnerships with established institutions like Circle and Tether.

Most DATs will collapse by 2026, as their stock prices fall below net asset value, breaking the equity-raising model that supported their 2025 growth. Cryptocurrency ETFs offer better liquidity and lower fees, further squeezing DATs' survival space. Only Strategy and a few large institutions will survive due to their scale and brand advantages, while small DATs will face liquidation, acquisition, or forced transformation.

The supply of stablecoins is set to surpass the $500 billion threshold, with transaction volume in the third quarter exceeding that of the U.S. ACH system. Growth is accelerating along two fronts: expansion in emerging markets and integration into corporate payment processes in developed markets. Businesses are shifting from passive holding to active usage, moving a portion of cross-border supplier payments, international contractor salaries, and intra-group settlements onto the stablecoin track. At least one major card network will process 5-10% of its cross-border merchant settlements via stablecoins by year-end. B2B payment platforms are increasingly integrating stablecoin options for international invoicing.

Prediction markets have experienced explosive growth during the U.S. midterm elections, with Polymarket's trading volume quadrupling compared to 2024. The industry is becoming segmented: Polymarket and Kalshi dominate cultural and political markets, while specialized DeFi platforms focus on leveraged financial products. 85% of copycat platforms have shut down due to an inability to attract users. The legal framework for sports betting and prediction markets remains unclear until the end of the year. However, due to the market's massive and attractive potential, user growth continues to accelerate.