- TD Cowen expects Congress to delay crypto market structure legislation to 2027, with rules potentially taking effect in 2029.
- Conflict-of-interest limits tied to Trump family crypto ventures are the main hurdle, pushing talks toward delayed enforcement.
- Senate math favors delay, as Republicans need Democratic votes, giving Democrats leverage to shift timing and implementation.
TD Cowen bank said U.S. lawmakers may postpone crypto market structure legislation until 2027, with enforcement in 2029. The assessment reflects congressional debates, election timing and conflict-of-interest disputes involving President Donald Trump.
Political Timelines and the Legislative Path
According to TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, Congress still has a narrow path to act this year. However, notably, political incentives reduce urgency. Managing director Jaret Seiberg explained Democrats may wait, especially if they expect gains in the 2026 midterm elections. Staff members have prepared technical language for months, which keeps negotiations active.
However, Seiberg noted that time favors delay. He said challenges fade if lawmakers pass the bill in 2027 and activate rules in 2029. This structure allows future administrations to shape enforcement. As a result, Democrats gain leverage, while Republicans face pressure to compromise on timing.
Conflict-of-Interest Rules Create the Core Dispute
The central obstacle involves conflict-of-interest provisions. Democrats seek limits on senior officials and family members owning or operating crypto businesses. Seiberg said such language would face firm resistance from President Donald Trump if applied immediately. Therefore, discussions focus on delayed enforcement.
Bloomberg previously estimated Trump earned about $620 million from family-linked crypto ventures. These include World Liberty Financial, a DeFi and stablecoin project listing Trump and his three sons as co-founders. The family also holds a stake in bitcoin miner American Bitcoin. Lawmakers have also questioned the TRUMP and MELANIA memecoins launched before Trump took office.
Senate Math and Implementation Pressures
After the House passed its version last year, momentum slowed in the Senate. Committees are expected to review the bill later this year. Notably, overcoming a filibuster requires 60 votes. Seiberg said Republicans would need at least seven Democratic votes, possibly more.
This math gives Democrats room to delay. TD Cowen said Democrats may only accept delayed conflict rules if the entire bill shifts equally. Seiberg added that complex laws often take years to implement, citing the GENIUS Act’s three-year rollout.