TD Cowen Managing Director Jaret Seiberg stated in a Monday research report that he is becoming increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of the Clarity Act for crypto market structure, estimating the likelihood of the bill advancing in the Senate and passing the House at only about 33%. The bill remains stalled in the U.S. Senate, as Congress has entered a two-week Easter recess. Seiberg noted that the compromise proposal on stablecoin yields championed by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks may fail to satisfy either side, potentially constraining liquidity management for crypto platforms and threatening core deposit businesses at banks. The bill is most likely to move forward before Congress adjourns for its August recess in late July, but senators’ expectations for its passage have significantly declined.
TD Cowen: Clarity Act passes in 2026 with 33% probability
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Summary
TD Cowen’s Jaret Seiberg said the Clarity Act has a 33% chance of passing in 2026, with stablecoin regulation remaining a key hurdle. The bill is stalled in the Senate, and a proposed compromise on stablecoin yields may fail to satisfy either side, impacting liquidity and crypto markets. Seiberg said the bill is most likely to move forward in late July, but expectations have declined.
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