Stress Test Shows Strategy's Bitcoin Per Share Could Drop 94%

• Stress test shows Strategy BTC per share could fall 94% if Bitcoin hits $26,611.
• Strategy modelled share price could drop to $1.01 under the worst-case bear scenario.
• Peter Schiff says Saylor went quiet on the lawyer’s advice amid shareholder lawsuits.

A detailed stress test has revealed that Strategy’s common equity Bitcoin per share could collapse by 94% under a severe but plausible bear market scenario, even as the company’s founder, Michael Saylor, has gone notably silent in public and a securities law firm has launched a formal investigation into the company.

Analyst Adam Livingston modeled what happens to Strategy over three years if Bitcoin falls to $26,611 by month six, Strategy’s mNAV drops below 0.50x, and capital markets close, forcing the company to sell Bitcoin to service its senior debt.

The results are severe. The claim ratio rises from 41.5% to 96.7%. Common equity Bitcoin per share collapses from 138,161 satoshis to just 7,884 satoshis. Strategy’s modeled share price falls to $1.01. After cash runs out in month nine, the company would need to sell 115,727 Bitcoin over the remaining two years to meet obligations.

Livingston was explicit that this does not represent a death spiral or instant bankruptcy. In the worst-case scenario, Strategy still holds 731,636 Bitcoin at the end of the three-year window, with mNAV recovering to 1.40x. The central risk, he argued, is severe compression of common equity value per Bitcoin share, not corporate collapse.

Peter Schiff flagged a separate but related development. Saylor, who has maintained a near-constant media presence for years promoting Strategy’s Bitcoin thesis, has stepped back from public appearances. Schiff suggested the timing is unlikely to be coincidental, speculating that legal counsel may have advised Saylor against making statements that could be used in shareholder litigation.

Schiff extended the criticism to CNBC, arguing the network gave Saylor a sustained platform to promote Strategy without meaningful challenge and is now providing minimal coverage of the company’s difficulties. “Given how much airtime CNBC gave Saylor to shill his MSTR house of cards, they are barely devoting any airtime to its current collapse,” he wrote, adding that he believes the network shares liability for the coverage it provided.

The legal dimension became formal this week. Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights practice, announced it is investigating potential securities claims on behalf of Strategy shareholders following allegations that the company may have issued materially misleading information to the investing public.

The investigation covers Strategy’s full range of listed securities, including MSTR, STRF, STRC, STRK, and STRD. The firm said it is preparing a class action seeking recovery of investor losses and is operating on a contingency fee basis, meaning shareholders can join without paying upfront costs. Investors who purchased Strategy securities and believe they suffered losses are being encouraged to come forward.

The investigation adds a formal legal layer to what has been building as a market and community dispute over Strategy’s financing model, particularly around the STRC preferred stock, which has traded well below its intended $100 par value in recent weeks amid broader Bitcoin price weakness.

Related:Strategy’s Bitcoin Loss Tops $14.5 Billion as Securities Probe Adds Pressure