Strategy's May Bitcoin Sale Remains Uncertain as Prediction Market Fluctuates

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Market trends for Strategy’s May Bitcoin sale remain unclear as prediction markets fluctuate sharply. Polymarket data shows the probability of a sale rose to 80% before declining to 58%. Over $16.4 million has been traded in the market-making strategy arena. Strategy has not provided any official confirmation. The outcome will be confirmed if any Bitcoin is sold before 11:59 PM ET on the target date. Data sources include MSTR, on-chain activity, and trusted reports.

Odaily Seer monitoring shows that Polymarket data indicates the probability of Strategy selling Bitcoin from today’s low has surged from 12% to as high as 80%, but has since retreated to 58%; the market, where debate between the two sides remains intense, has now accumulated over $16.4 million in trading volume.

Previous market reports indicated that Strategy sold 32 bitcoins for $2.5 million, though Saylor was active on Twitter tonight, he has not issued an official statement regarding this.

The market settlement rule states that if the Strategy sells any Bitcoin before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the specified date, the outcome of this prediction market will be “Yes”; otherwise, it will be “No”.

The primary determinants for this prediction market are information released by MicroStrategy (MSTR), on-chain data, and a consolidated conclusion drawn from authoritative reports by multiple sources.

Odaily Seer continuously monitors prediction markets to see changes before pricing.

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