BTC sale strategy sparks Polymarket settlement dispute, market volume exceeds $75M

Huo Xing Cai Jing reports that on June 2, Strategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC last week, sparking a dispute over the settlement of a prediction market on Polymarket with over $75 million in trading volume. The market asked: "Will Strategy sell any Bitcoin before May 31?" Traders could choose "Yes" or "No." On Monday, Strategy disclosed in a filing with the SEC that it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31, generating approximately $2.5 million to support allocations related to its preferred stock issuance. This marks Strategy’s first disclosed Bitcoin sale since December 2022. Traders supporting a "Yes" settlement argue that the SEC filing clearly shows the sale occurred before the deadline; those supporting a "No" settlement contend that the information was not publicly available when the market closed and therefore should be settled as "No." This market has previously been settled as "No" twice and challenged twice, and is now in its final review stage. Polymarket later added a note on the page stating, "Confirmations obtained outside the market’s time frame are ineligible," seemingly favoring a "No" settlement. Such disputes have repeatedly challenged prediction market platforms, as they grapple with determining whether the outcome should be based on when the event occurred or when evidence of it became public.