Bitcoin has fallen more than 15% this week, briefly approaching $61,000. Despite weakening market sentiment, Standard Chartered Bank maintains its year-end Bitcoin price target of $100,000, suggesting this selling pressure may be nearing its end.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated in a report to clients that this correction was primarily driven by outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, passive liquidations of leveraged positions, and concerns stemming from Strategy’s recent sale of Bitcoin. However, by the time the report was released, Bitcoin had rebounded from its intraday low and returned to around the mid-$60,000 range.
Strategy or buy back
One reason Standard Chartered maintains a bullish outlook is that, historically, Strategy has typically re-entered the market after selling Bitcoin.
Earlier this week, Strategy disclosed the sale of 32 bitcoins, amounting to approximately $2.5 million, to fulfill preferred stock distribution obligations. This transaction drew attention because the company has long been known for consistently increasing its bitcoin holdings.
Kendrick noted that Strategy also sold Bitcoin in 2022, but quickly expanded its position shortly afterward. Based on this history, he expects the company may still resume a more aggressive buying pace. Standard Chartered believes the market’s reaction to this sale may have amplified its actual impact.
ETF cash flows remain resilient
Standard Chartered also noted that overall fund flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have not shown significant slowdown. According to Kendrick, the cumulative net inflow since the product's launch remains approximately $54.2 billion.
- Cumulative net inflow of approximately $54.2 billion
- Holdings decreased from approximately 682,000 to 674,000 BTC
- Bitcoin once dropped toward $61,000.
Although the relevant positions have declined from their highs, the bank believes the overall trend remains relatively stable. This is one of the key reasons it has not lowered its target price.
Clearing volume has not shown extremes.
In addition to spot ETFs and corporate buying, Standard Chartered also views changes in derivatives positions as another indicator of whether the market is overly pessimistic.
The row stated that during the recent downturn, approximately $1.5 billion in leveraged Bitcoin futures positions were liquidated. Kendrick said this scale is comparable to previous normal pullbacks but still below the liquidation levels seen during some severe crashes.
Standard Chartered has not only maintained an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin recently. Last week, the bank also compared Ethereum's current weakness to Amazon's performance after the dot-com bubble burst, suggesting that token prices do not always immediately reflect the underlying network's development progress. The bank still maintains its target of Ethereum reaching $4,000 by the end of 2026 and $40,000 by 2030.