BlockBeats report: During the Chinese New Year market holiday on February 17, precious metals continued their downward trend. Spot gold fell as low as $4,860 per ounce, declining approximately 2.6% on the day, following a 1% drop in the previous trading session; spot silver dropped over 4% during the session, breaking below the $73 mark.
Market sentiment is being influenced by expectations surrounding geopolitical negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated he would participate "indirectly" in the Geneva talks on the Iran nuclear issue and noted Iran's willingness to reach an agreement; meanwhile, the third round of Russia-U.S.-Ukraine talks may focus on territorial issues. Analysts note that if diplomatic tensions ease, capital may flow into risk assets, reducing demand for safe-haven assets.
Bas Kooijman, CEO of DHF Capital, said that cautious optimism from negotiations has dampened safe-haven buying. Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index, noted that if gold remains below $5,000, short-term downside risks will increase and could further weigh on bullish sentiment. Tim Waterer, an analyst at KCM, believes that amid tight global liquidity, gold lacks strong catalysts in the short term and may need to wait for further dollar weakness.
Previously, speculative buying pushed gold prices to a historic high near $5,600, but they plunged over the next two days to around $4,400 and have recently been trading sideways.
Multiple investment banks continue to maintain a bullish long-term outlook. Institutions including BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs believe that geopolitical risks, controversies surrounding the Federal Reserve’s independence, and global de-dollarization trends will continue to support gold prices. Jefferies analysts have raised their 2026 gold price forecast from $4,200 to $5,000, citing inflation and dollar depreciation as the key macroeconomic drivers.