BlockBeats news, on June 12, SpaceX will officially list on Nasdaq tonight under the ticker symbol SPCX, with an IPO price of $135 per share, implying a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion, and plans to raise $75 billion, making it one of the largest IPOs in history. Market sentiment is clearly divided, with traders and analysts forming two camps: one enthusiastically bullish and the other concerned about the high valuation.
Bullish views suggest that SpaceX’s first day of trading has significant upside potential, driven by FOMO sentiment, a small float structure, and expectations of its inclusion in the Nasdaq Index, with market capitalization potentially reaching the $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion range. Prediction market data indicates that traders assign a high probability to it surpassing $2 trillion on its first day.
Some investment banks, such as Oppenheimer, have issued an "Outperform" rating with a $190 price target, implying over 40% upside from the offering price, citing Starlink’s commercialization potential, vertical integration capabilities, and long-term growth logic in the space and AI markets. Meanwhile, retail investors and Musk supporters are highly enthusiastic, viewing it as a "generational investment opportunity," with strong retail subscription demand and oversubscription reported on some platforms.
Conservative analysts argue that the valuation has already fully priced in future growth expectations. Institutions such as Morningstar believe its fair value is significantly lower than the IPO price, with some models estimating it at only around $780 billion; academic valuations also generally fall below the current price level. Market participants are concerned that its long-term growth depends on unproven technological pathways and sustained high levels of capital investment.
In addition, analysts warn that historical large IPOs often experience overheating on the first day, followed by prolonged underperformance relative to the broader market, and the current structural low float may amplify volatility risks.
Overall, SpaceX’s first-day trading is likely to experience significant volatility driven by sentiment and liquidity, but its medium- to long-term performance will still depend on its ability to deliver profits and validate its technological roadmap. The market generally recommends a sentiment-driven approach for the short term, while long-term investors should wait for further clarity on fundamentals.