SpaceX is set to launch its largest IPO ever: valued at $1.8 trillion, with Wall Street projecting AI revenue to grow 100-fold in four years. But S&P won’t give it special treatment—don’t expect it to join the S&P 500 within one year of listing.
Around SpaceX’s upcoming initial public offering (IPO), multiple Wall Street firms have begun presenting their valuation models to potential investors, with a primary focus on the explosive growth of its artificial intelligence business. These projections are being used to support the company’s target valuation of up to $1.8 trillion.
According to insiders, Evercore ISI’s analysis team expects SpaceX’s artificial intelligence division’s revenue to surge from $3.2 billion last year to $755 billion by 2031. Under the same projection model, the company’s total revenue is forecast to exceed $1 trillion by that time, compared to $18.7 billion in total revenue for 2025. Due to the data not being publicly disclosed, the source requested anonymity.
The company engaged with potential investors on Thursday morning to present the listing arrangements. This IPO aims to raise $75 billion, with a fixed offering price of $135 per share; if successfully completed, it will become the largest initial public offering in history. SpaceX, headquartered in Starbase, Texas, operates in rocket launches, satellite services, and artificial intelligence.
Different institutions provide slightly varying figures, but all emphasize that artificial intelligence will become the core growth engine. According to insiders, Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2030, SpaceX’s total revenue will reach $474 billion, with its AI business contributing nearly $322 billion—an increase of approximately 100 times from current levels.
Evercore ISI provided a similar but slightly higher overall forecast: total revenue of $486 billion by 2030, with approximately $331 billion coming from artificial intelligence. The firm further projects that by 2031, the share of AI revenue in total revenue will rise from less than 20% today to 74%, while the share of space-related business will decline to 1%, a significant contraction from over 20% last year.
In terms of cash flow, the Goldman Sachs team expects the company’s free cash flow to reach a low of negative $105 billion in 2029, but turn positive by 2031 and exceed $72 billion.
In addition to artificial intelligence, SpaceX’s other businesses are also included in the growth model. According to insiders, both institutions expect revenue from its satellite internet-dominated connectivity business to rise from approximately $11.4 billion last year to over $140 billion by 2030.
Growth in the rocket launch business has been relatively modest. Another person familiar with the matter said revenue in this segment is expected to reach approximately $8 billion by 2030, doubling from last year’s $4.1 billion.
Meanwhile, the scale of capital investment is projected to expand significantly. Relevant studies show that corporate capital expenditures are expected to rise from over $20 billion last year to more than $360 billion by 2030. Evercore further estimates that capital expenditures in 2031 will nearly double to $732 billion, with approximately $666 billion allocated to artificial intelligence—an amount more than 50 times last year’s spending in this area.
In its valuation approach, Goldman Sachs selected a diverse set of companies as comparables, including NVIDIA and Tesla from the "Magnificent Seven," as well as aerospace firms such as AST SpaceMobile Inc. and Rocket Lab Corp., artificial intelligence companies like CoreWeave Inc. and Nebius Group NV, and Palantir Technologies Inc.
The Financial Times of the UK previously disclosed some of Goldman Sachs' projections. In response to these estimates, a SpaceX spokesperson did not immediately respond to requests for comment, and neither Goldman Sachs nor Evercore ISI provided a response.
Under the current schedule, SpaceX is expected to complete its IPO pricing on June 11, 2026, with its shares planned to be listed on the Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas exchanges under the ticker symbol SPCX.
S&P maintains its existing criteria and rejects the "fast-track inclusion" proposal.
S&P Dow Jones Indices clearly stated on Thursday, following the release of its consultation results, that it will continue to enforce its current rules and will not create a fast-track pathway for newly listed large companies to enter core indices such as the S&P 500.
This means that mega IPOs, including those from Elon Musk’s SpaceX, must still comply with established eligibility criteria.
According to the announcement, S&P will not shorten the 12-month observation period for new listings, nor will it relax requirements for profitability or public float due to a company’s large market capitalization. This stance contrasts with recent adjustments by Nasdaq and FTSE Russell, which have revised their rules to accelerate inclusion timelines.
The context for this discussion is the growing number of companies that reach substantial scale before going public. The consultation launched earlier this year focuses on evaluating whether index rules designed for traditional listing pathways need to adapt to the new reality where “mega-companies are mature upon listing”—a type of adjustment known in the industry as “fast inclusion.”
There is a clear divide between old and new perspectives on whether inclusion should be accelerated. Some investors argue that the current restrictions on profitability, public float, and trading history are precisely designed to avoid indices chasing short-term market trends. They point out that if new stocks are included too early, passive funds may be forced to build positions before prices have fully formed, exposing them to higher volatility risk.
However, those who support adjusting the rules argue that indices should reflect the true market structure as soon as possible. According to this logic, some companies with valuations in the trillions of dollars, even if they have not yet met traditional criteria, have already gained significant economic influence and should be included in major benchmarks.
SpaceX will face a waiting period of at least one year.
Under current rules, even if SpaceX completes what would be the largest IPO in history, it cannot enter the S&P 500 for at least 12 months after listing and must also meet all other criteria, including profitability and public float requirements.
“I was really surprised,” said James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, “but S&P is the market leader—they can go against the tide.”
In comparison, other index providers have significantly accelerated their pace.
Nasdaq recently adjusted its rules to allow companies similar to SpaceX to be added to the Nasdaq 100 Index in as few as 15 trading days, reducing the previous minimum waiting period from three months; FTSE Russell has also implemented similar measures, shortening the inclusion waiting period to five trading days.