SpaceX IPO on June 12: Should You Buy on Listing Day?

$1.75 trillion—buy or wait?

Author and source: Xiao Bing, Chaoxiang Research

On June 12, SpaceX will list on Nasdaq at $135 per share under the ticker SPCX, valuing the company at $1.75 trillion—the largest IPO in human capital market history.

Fidelity, Robinhood, and Charles Schwab have all opened retail subscriptions, with 30% of shares reserved for individual investors at a minimum threshold of just $2,000—meaning nearly all U.S. stock account holders can participate.

The question arises: Should I buy? When should I buy?

No one can provide a definitive answer. However, around this IPO, the market has developed several clear strategic frameworks, each with its own logic, assumptions, and historical references. Below, we break them down one by one to help readers make decisions based on their individual risk preferences.

Key milestones:

June 11: IPO priced at $135 per share

June 12: Listed on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX, with only 3% of shares outstanding.

Early July: Nasdaq 100 Fast Inclusion Window (15 trading days after listing)

September: First quarterly report (Q2 2026), first disclosure of AI segment loss details

After Q2 earnings report: First lock-up period expires, allowing certain insiders to sell up to 20% of their holdings.

December: Large-scale lock-up periods expire, with early employees, VCs, and underwriters unlocking in bulk.

June 2027: Musk's 366-day lock-up period expires

Quick overview of four strategies:

This is the most aggressive strategy, based on the core assumption that stock supply during the initial listing will be far lower than demand.

This judgment is supported by three structural factors.

First, the float is extremely limited. SpaceX is issuing only about 3% of its shares in this offering, with the majority of equity still held by insiders and early investors under lock-up agreements. For a company with a $1.75 trillion market capitalization, a 3% float means that even moderate buying demand could significantly push the stock price higher.

Second, the Nasdaq 100 Fast Inclusion Mechanism. According to Nasdaq’s 2024 updated rules, SpaceX could be added to the Nasdaq 100 Index as soon as 15 trading days after its listing (around early July). Once included, all passive funds and ETFs tracking the index are required to purchase the stock, generating a wave of guaranteed incremental capital. Although Morningstar believes SpaceX is overvalued by a factor of two, it acknowledges that this mechanism could provide short-term support for the stock price.

Third, the underwriting syndicate. Led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase, 21 institutions are participating. Global top-tier investment banks have both the motivation and capability to support the stock price during the initial IPO phase.

Historical reference: Saudi Aramco’s 2019 IPO was priced at $25.6, rising 10% on its first trading day to hit the daily price limit. However, Aramco was listed only on Saudi Arabia’s domestic exchange, with liquidity far lower than that of Nasdaq. SpaceX is facing direct inflows of global capital.

Maximum risk: If the broader market experiences a systemic decline during the IPO week—such as due to geopolitical shocks or an unexpected hawkish move by the Fed—even the strongest underwriting syndicate cannot withstand the selling pressure. Additionally, the fixed price of $135 bypasses the traditional range-based bookbuilding process, leaving no price adjustment buffer if actual demand falls short of expectations.

SpaceX's first quarterly report as a public company is expected to be released in September 2026, covering Q2 2026 results.

The value of this earnings report lies in the fact that it will be the first time SpaceX discloses detailed loss figures for its AI business under public company reporting standards. While the roadshow PPT provided only annual summary data, quarterly reports require breakdowns by segment. The report will answer key questions: How much cash is xAI burning each quarter? Is Starlink’s user growth continuing? And what progress has Grok made with enterprise customers?

At the same time, the first earnings report also marks the first lock-up expiration window. SpaceX has adopted a non-standard staggered release structure: certain insiders are permitted to sell up to 20% of their shares immediately after the Q2 earnings release. This is significantly shorter than the typical 180-day uniform lock-up period seen in most IPOs.

Historical reference: Uber went public in May 2019 at a price of $45, closing its first day at $41.57 below its offering price. However, its true bottom came in March 2020 (at the pandemic low of $13.71) and around June 2022 (near $20). Over the four years from its IPO to May 2023, Uber underperformed the S&P 500 by 116 percentage points. But since May 2023, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 118 percentage points. Investors who patiently waited for a more reasonable valuation ultimately received better returns.

Target audience: Those who believe in SpaceX’s long-term value but are uncertain about its $1.75 trillion valuation and are willing to wait three months for more comprehensive information.

Maximum risk: If the asset surges on day one and continues to strengthen after being added to the Nasdaq 100, waiting means paying a higher purchase price. FOMO is the biggest enemy of this strategy.

This is the most patient strategy, betting that concentrated selling by insiders will create a more attractive entry price.

SpaceX's lock-up structure warrants careful analysis. Elon Musk himself is subject to a 366-day lock-up, with shares set to release in mid-June 2027. Other executives and early investors will see their shares released in tranches following the Q2 earnings report, with all shares fully unlocked by the Q2 2027 earnings report. The first major wave of concentrated unlock is expected around December 2026.

BitMEX's trading strategy analysis suggests that this moment could see the largest single-day insider selling event in market history. Early employees (many of whom have extremely low cost bases), early-stage VC investors, and underwriting banks may all become sellers simultaneously.

If the losses from the AI business continue to expand in the Q2 and Q3 earnings reports, the narrative will shift from “AI concept support” to “AI dragging down profits,” further intensifying selling pressure.

Historical reference: Facebook’s IPO price in May 2012 was $38; after the lock-up period expired, the stock declined to $17.55 by September 2012, halving from its offering price. However, investors who bought at that low point and held until today have seen returns exceeding 30 times their initial investment. The price lows created by lock-up expiration selling pressure often present the best entry opportunities for long-term investors.

Target audience: Those who believe SpaceX’s long-term value is determined by Starlink and are willing to wait 6–12 months for a greater margin of safety.

Maximum risk: If SpaceX announces better-than-expected results during the lock-up period—such as successful commercial operation of Starship, Starlink users surpassing 15 million, or an unexpected turnaround in its AI business—the stock price could rise to a level where selling pressure becomes difficult to contain before the lock-up expires. A lock-up expiration does not necessarily lead to a decline for strong companies; both Netflix and Amazon quickly recovered their losses after their lock-up periods ended.

Avoid directly participating in the SpaceX IPO, and instead invest in companies and assets that are certain to benefit from the SpaceX ecosystem.

Several directions:

In terms of hardware supply chains, SpaceX’s Colossus data center utilizes NVIDIA’s GB200 and GB300, while custom chips are extensively used in Starship’s avionics and Starlink terminals. NVIDIA (NVDA) is the most direct upstream beneficiary, and Intel (INTC) would also benefit if the Terafab chip factory is established.

Regarding indirect exposure, the Cambria ERShares Private Investments ETF (XOVR) holds a special purpose vehicle for SpaceX; as of April 2026, SpaceX exposure is reported to exceed 40% of the fund’s total position. The Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) will also automatically gain exposure once SpaceX is included.

Ideal for: Those who believe SpaceX’s IPO will boost the entire space and AI infrastructure sector but wish to avoid the concentration risk of holding a single stock at a $1.75 trillion valuation.

Maximum risk: The return on indirect exposure may not exceed that of direct ownership. If SpaceX surges after its IPO, the opportunity cost for observers could be substantial.

None of the four strategies is right or wrong; the difference lies in investors’ judgments on two variables: SpaceX’s long-term value and the time it will take for the market to absorb a $1.75T valuation.

If you believe Starlink’s growth can support a $600B+ valuation and that the long-term option on space computing is truly worth $1 trillion, then buying at any price and holding long-term makes sense. If you think a 94x revenue multiple requires time to justify, and that lock-up expirations and AI losses are foreseeable pressure points, then waiting for a better entry price is the more rational choice.

No one is obligated to make a decision on the first day of the largest IPO in history. SpaceX won’t disappear after June 12; its rockets will keep launching, and Starlink’s user base will continue to grow. The only difference is that waiting gives investors more information and a larger margin of safety.

In capital markets, the cost of missing a rally is almost always less than the cost of being stuck at the wrong price.