Source: Jin10 Data
Over the past few years, as SpaceX has gradually evolved into a dominant force in the aerospace industry, market interest in it has grown exponentially. However, investors should expect significant price volatility after its public listing.
According to Bloomberg, SpaceX may secretly file its IPO application as early as this month, seeking a valuation of over $1.75 trillion. The company plans to go public in June, potentially coinciding with Musk’s birthday or a rare planetary alignment. SpaceX, headquartered in Starbase, Texas, had an estimated valuation of approximately $1.25 trillion after absorbing Musk’s AI company, xAI.
PitchBook analyst Franco Granda wrote in a report on Tuesday that SpaceX’s post-listing stock performance will resemble that of Tesla (TSLA.O), “but with greater volatility.”
Future growth expectations: Starlink will contribute primary revenue
PitchBook forecasts that by 2040, SpaceX's revenue will reach $150 billion, with an adjusted profit of $95 billion.
In comparison, the company generated peak revenues of approximately $16 billion and profits of about $8 billion last year. Future annual revenues of around $42 billion could come from the Starlink satellite internet business, which currently contributes the majority of SpaceX’s cash flow.
This forecast does not include xAI’s operations. xAI is currently burning cash at a rapid pace but may secure additional projects from the U.S. Department of Defense in the future. The forecast also assumes that Tesla and SpaceX will not merge, although Musk and some analysts have previously suggested this possibility.
Last November, Musk wrote on the X platform: "My company is, somewhat surprisingly, moving toward convergence."
The Musk Effect: Vision-Driven but Timelines Often Delayed
Granda said that many lessons investors have learned from Tesla may also apply to SpaceX. For example, both companies are influenced by Musk’s well-known public optimism.
Granda cited Tesla, which had pledged to achieve weekly production of 5,000 cars by the end of 2017 but subsequently fell into "production hell" and failed to meet the target. However, when the company finally reached this milestone in mid-2018, its stock price surged significantly.
SpaceX has also experienced similar delays. The development of its Starship super rocket has faced multiple setbacks, and other spacecraft projects in the company’s history have encountered comparable challenges. Musk once set 2022 as the "ideal target" for sending an uncrewed mission to Mars, but even by 2026, this mission still requires several more years to achieve.
However, investors have gradually become accustomed to Musk's timelines having a certain degree of flexibility.
Therefore, when the December deadline for the autonomous taxi project passed, investors did not panic excessively. Later, when Musk achieved the stated goal, the stock price rose accordingly. Granda refers to this phenomenon as a “reputation ledger,” where investors automatically factor in delays but remain more focused on the overall vision.
This could be beneficial for SpaceX. The company recently delayed its Mars colonization plan while simultaneously applying to regulators for permission to launch up to one million space-based data centers into orbit—a plan that depends on the progress of the Starship project. SpaceX also currently plans to build a city on the Moon.
Post-listing challenges: Increased volatility and heavy reliance on Musk
However, as a publicly traded company, SpaceX must still achieve these goals while continuing to make progress in its xAI and Starlink businesses, which could lead to significant market reactions.
Granda predicts that if certain major news typically causes Tesla’s stock to fluctuate by 10% to 15%, it could trigger a 20% to 30% movement in SpaceX’s stock. This is partly due to SpaceX’s estimated public float of only about 3.3%.
SpaceX stock may also benefit from the so-called "Musk premium," which has helped maintain its share price at a high level even as Tesla’s core electric vehicle business has declined. However, this halo effect also means that Musk’s companies are highly dependent on him.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard previously said:
Today, more than 50% of shareholders believe that Tesla is Elon, and Elon is Tesla. Many people, possibly even a majority, directly link Tesla’s success to Elon’s tenure.
Tesla also mentioned in its annual report its dependence on Musk and warned that the stock price could decline if Musk is forced to sell part of his stake. SpaceX, founded by Musk over two decades ago, currently has him holding approximately 44% of the company, and its reliance on the CEO may be equally high.
Granda stated that negative news from Tesla is likely to put pressure on SpaceX's stock price, and vice versa. Meanwhile, Musk's political stance has also sparked controversy and affected Tesla's sales. Granda concluded:
The combination of a lower circulating supply, earlier-stage technology, and highly concentrated exposure to Musk-related risks means its volatility could exceed Tesla’s already substantial historical volatility patterns.