SpaceX Submits Confidential IPO Documents with $1.75 Trillion Valuation Goal

Author: Schen TechFlow

DeepChain Summary: On April 1, SpaceX secretly filed its IPO registration documents with the SEC, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion and aiming to raise up to $75 billion—potentially surpassing Saudi Aramco’s historic IPO record of $29 billion. Following the news, the aerospace sector surged, with Rocket Lab and Intuitive Machines rising nearly 10%, and the aerospace-focused ETF climbing as much as 5%.

But market controversy is equally intense: In February, SpaceX merged with xAI, which posted annual losses exceeding $6 billion, in an all-stock transaction; Nasdaq’s newly tailored 15-day fast-track index inclusion rule has further sparked concerns about passive funds being forced to buy.

The content is as follows:

Elon Musk's space empire has officially launched its countdown to IPO.

According to multiple media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, and Reuters on April 1, SpaceX has secretly submitted a draft registration statement for its IPO to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with a target valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion and plans to list on Nasdaq in June. The transaction, internally codenamed "Project Apex," is expected to raise up to $75 billion—more than 2.5 times the $29 billion raised by Saudi Aramco in its 2019 IPO—and is poised to become the largest IPO in human capital market history.

SpaceX has assembled a rare syndicate of 21 banks, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup serving as lead underwriters. According to Reuters, Musk is considering allocating up to 30% of the IPO shares to retail investors.

SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion valuation target is primarily supported by its satellite internet service, Starlink. According to data from Teslarati and Spaceflight Now, Starlink had 9.2 million users by the end of 2025 and surpassed 10 million users in February 2026, with full-year revenue exceeding $10 billion in 2025; analysts project this figure could reach $24 billion in 2026.

In February of this year, SpaceX completed a all-stock merger with xAI, Elon Musk’s AI company, with SpaceX valued at approximately $1 trillion and xAI valued at approximately $250 billion at the time of the transaction, resulting in a combined entity valued at around $1.25 trillion. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the merged company is projected to generate nearly $20 billion in revenue by 2026, with xAI contributing less than $1 billion.

The $50 billion premium, rising from a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion to an IPO target valuation of $1.75 trillion, reflects market optimism toward the integration of space and AI. However, skepticism remains significant. According to Benzinga, citing sources familiar with the matter, xAI was burning through approximately $1 billion per month at the time of filing, and all 11 co-founders have since departed. One user on Hacker News bluntly stated: xAI is losing about $6 billion net annually, while SpaceX’s net profit in a good year is around $8 billion—retail investors are effectively being forced to take on a massively unprofitable AI company.

Behind SpaceX's listing process, a rule change by Nasdaq has sparked widespread controversy.

According to Bloomberg on March 30, Nasdaq announced new rules effective May 1: newly listed companies ranking within the top 40 by market capitalization in the Nasdaq-100 Index will be eligible for inclusion after just 15 days of trading, down from the previous minimum waiting period of three months. Nasdaq also eliminated the 10% minimum free float requirement and now permits unlisted shares to be included in total market capitalization calculations.

According to Rio Times, SpaceX previously listed “rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 after going public” as one of the conditions for choosing Nasdaq over the New York Stock Exchange. Inclusion in the index means that ETFs and index funds tracking this benchmark—such as Invesco QQQ, which manages over $300 billion in assets alone—will be required to purchase shares of the new member. Over $30 trillion in global assets are linked to major U.S. stock indices that are adjusting their rules.

Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth Management criticized the practice of a company demanding inclusion in an index from its IPO as “highly unusual,” effectively using passive capital to support its stock price. Hedge funds can precisely anticipate institutional buying surges within a 15-day window and position themselves ahead of time to profit. Renowned investor Michael Burry calculated on X: If SpaceX went public at a $1.75 trillion valuation and issued only 5% of its shares, the publicly traded equity would amount to approximately $87.5 billion. However, after Nasdaq applies a 5x weighting multiplier, index funds would allocate weight to SpaceX as if it had a market capitalization of $437.5 billion.

On the day the news broke, the aerospace sector saw widespread gains. According to CNBC, AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab rose nearly 10%, rocket manufacturer Firefly Aerospace, which went public in August last year, surged 16%, and York Space, which listed this January, gained 5%. According to Reuters, ETFs tracking the aerospace sector also strengthened, with Ark Space & Defense Innovation up 2.9%, Procure Space up 4.9%, and the Destiny Tech100 fund, which invests in private tech giants, rising 4.9%.

Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management, said it is not uncommon for large IPOs to drive a revaluation of the entire industry, as investors typically interpret IPOs as positive signals for the sector. Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, bluntly stated that retail investors will likely rush to buy SpaceX on its first day of trading, but cautioned that as a private company, SpaceX has been private far longer than most public companies, and most of its appreciation has already been captured by private investors, leaving uncertain room for public market investors.

Georgetown University finance professor and IPO expert Reena Aggarwal noted that even with strong fundamentals and ample investor interest, IPOs can still fail in a poor market environment. The Nasdaq has just experienced its largest weekly decline in nearly a year due to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and surging oil prices, with market volatility remaining elevated. She expressed hope that geopolitical tensions will ease before June. Polymarket data shows the probability of SpaceX completing its IPO by June 30 is 63%, having risen by 10 percentage points following the news.

SpaceX is not an isolated case. According to Bloomberg, SpaceX is expected to be the first of this year’s three mega IPOs, with OpenAI and Anthropic also preparing for public listings this year.

According to Gizmodo’s analysis, the combined valuation of the three companies approaches $3 trillion; if they list in a narrow time window and are quickly added to indices via fast-track pathways, they could place immense pressure on market liquidity. SpaceX’s IPO is not only a milestone for the aerospace industry but also a barometer for whether the AI investment boom can be sustained. NVIDIA’s March GTC event triggered only minor stock price fluctuations, indicating that market enthusiasm for AI concepts is showing signs of fatigue. The market’s reaction to these three IPOs will largely determine the next phase of AI trading.