The globally anticipated space technology giant SpaceX (NASDAQ ticker: SPCX) will officially list on the Nasdaq today (the 12th), breaking historical records with a $75 billion fundraising amount and a $1.77 trillion total valuation, claiming the title of the largest IPO in history. Facing this highly talked-about “space superunicorn,” how should investors position themselves? This article comprehensively outlines four critical milestones for today: trading debut, rapid access to the Nasdaq 100, first quarterly earnings report, and the first wave of lock-up expiration—helping you precisely anticipate subsequent capital flows and selling pressure risks.
(Prior context: SpaceX listed at $135, experts divided on valuation: Morningstar says “halve it,” Ron Baron sees $30 trillion)
(Background supplement: Arkham uncovers the largest on-chain long position in SPCX: 0x9cc holds over 18 million SpaceX)
The strongest space empire on Earth has officially arrived on Wall Street. The globally anticipated space technology giant, SpaceX, will officially list on the Nasdaq exchange today (the 12th) under the stock ticker “SPCX.” SpaceX previously set its offering price at $135 per share, issuing approximately 5.556 billion Class A common shares, successfully raising a staggering $75 billion and pushing the company’s total valuation to an astonishing $1.77 trillion, undisputedly claiming the title of the largest IPO in history.
However, due to SpaceX’s initially extremely low free float (only about 4.3%) and its highly unusual phased, step-by-step lock-up structure, the stock price is expected to experience exceptionally volatile fluctuations after listing. According to @OdailyChina compiled and publicly available data, investors considering participation or currently observing must closely monitor the following four critical timing points related to capital inflow and share distribution.
Node 1: Listing today! Quotes begin at 9:50 AM Eastern Time.
SpaceX officially listed today and began trading simultaneously on Nasdaq (including Nasdaq Texas). Notably, its precise opening timeline is as follows: pre-market matching quotes commenced at 9:50 a.m. Eastern Time (9:50 p.m. Taipei Time), followed by official eligibility for public trading at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time (10:00 p.m. Taipei Time). Due to the extremely limited float during the initial listing phase and the expected settlement of the greenshoe (over-allotment option) on June 15, volatility on the first day of trading is anticipated to reach peak levels across the broader market.
Node 2: Rapid Access in Early July! Unlock Nasdaq-100 for $10 Billion in Capital
Approximately 15 trading days after its stock listing (expected around July 6–7), SpaceX will experience its first major bullish catalyst post-IPO. Due to its massive market capitalization, it is anticipated to qualify for Nasdaq’s specially designed “Fast-Track” eligibility period for super-sized new listings. Upon successful completion of this review, SpaceX will be swiftly added to the Nasdaq 100 Index. At that time, the massive pool of passive funds globally tracking this index—such as QQQ—will be legally and contractually obligated to collectively build positions within a short timeframe. Market estimates suggest that between $8 billion and $18 billion in passive capital could flood in, becoming the strongest core driver supporting SPCX’s upward price momentum.
Node 3: Earnings Report Launches Mid-August! Wall Street Scrutinizes Three Key Focus Areas
SpaceX is expected to release its first quarterly earnings report (Q2 report) as a publicly traded company in mid-August (around August 11). This marks the first time the previously highly secretive private company will fully open its books to public scrutiny under Wall Street’s spotlight. Investors should focus on three key operational metrics: first, the actual profitability and user growth bottlenecks of Starlink; second, the burn rate of Starship as it approaches commercialization; and third, whether there have been any new substantive developments regarding the “future significant equity issuance” or “potential AI asset acquisition” previously hinted at in the prospectus.
Node 4: 48 Hours After Earnings! First Wave of "Staggered Unlock" Selling Pressure Test
Within 48 hours following the Q2 earnings call on August 11, SpaceX will experience its first major post-IPO lock-up expiration. To avoid a massive sell-off at a single point in time, SpaceX has abandoned the traditional 180-day single lock-up release and instead adopted a staggered approach, releasing approximately 7% at regular intervals. However, during the first wave of lock-up expiration in mid-August, the market expects up to 10% to 15% of actual insider shares to be released, including employee stock options and earlier asset swap shares.
Notably, there is a hedging clause: if the stock price performs strongly after listing and remains above 30% above the IPO price (i.e., above $175.50) for a continuous period, the unlock quota will be additionally increased by 10%, raising the initial selling pressure to 30%. As for CEO Elon Musk’s own holdings of 42% of shares and 85% of voting rights, they are subject to the strictest 366-day lock-up period, with major unlocks not permitted until June 2027. This complex, finely tuned structure signals that the U.S. stock market will face an extremely rigorous test of share turnover and selling pressure starting in August.
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