Serenity, the top U.S. stock trader on X, claims a 3840% annual return.

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Golem (@web 3_golem)

As an investor focused on U.S. stocks in AI and semiconductors, if you haven’t heard of Serenity, you’re likely still outside the door of proper investment research.

Why say that? Because he is currently the most popular stock signal provider online—everyone from retail investors to Wall Street professionals follows his reports and copies his trades, with some even packaging his publicly available free opinions into courses and selling them within communities.

On May 24, Serenity posted on X platformannouncinghis investment performance this year: a year-to-date return of 3840.39%; the day before, he had also shared his investment return over the past two years, which reached an impressive 2256.99%.

Serenity joined X only in July 2025, and by May of this year, her follower count had grown to 358,000, with over 32,000 subscribers—just under 15,000 fewer than Musk’s subscriber count. Yet, no one still knows Serenity’s true identity; all that is known about her background comes from her bio:

• Former Reddit WSB famous trader (Odaily note: Wall Street Bets is the largest retail trading community in the U.S.; Serenity was banned in 2022 for recommending a stock with the ticker AXTI, which has since surged over 700% this year);
• AI, semiconductor supply chain analyst, former RISC-V Foundation member, former AI research scientist;
• Currently, the main trading focus is on “those overlooked bottlenecks”;

From the introduction, Serenity positions herself as an expert in the AI field and has claimed she turned down an offer from NVIDIA’s AI team in 2018. In a post, Serenity stated that her investment decisions are based on thorough understanding and research of AI and the semiconductor industry. Her typical research process involves: first conducting initial paper research, then translating these insights into practical strategies and trades, followed by subsequent due diligence on alpha, and finally, celebrating when the stocks rise.

As shown below, this is the current major stock holdings compiled by community user @kaikaibtc, primarily focused on sectors within the AI supply chain such as optical modules, silicon photonics, storage, CPO, and substrates. None of these 21 stocks have a profit below 100%, and AXTI—the stock Serenity has mentioned most frequently and promoted for over two years—has achieved profits exceeding 10,000%. He has publicly stated that AXTI is his most legendary trade.

However, even more rare than these exaggerated profits is the fact that before Serenity identified these assets, neither retail investors nor institutions had taken notice.

When Serenity previously posted buy signals for certain stocks, they were often met with skepticism; only months or even a year later, when investors saw the stocks’ extraordinary performance, did they realize he was right—RPI, AXTI, SIVE, and others are vivid examples. As this pattern repeated itself, the Serenity account naturally became a daily must-read for retail investors, Wall Street professionals, and even Silicon Valley investors.

Why does Serenity always stay ahead of the market and uncover undervalued stocks? The secret lies in his own developed Chokepoint investment theory.

Chokepoint is the most frequently mentioned term in Serenity's post and also the core of his investment logic.

AI is undoubtedly the dominant narrative of today’s world, but the AI industry faces a clear supply-demand imbalance: on one hand, internet giants are pouring massive funds into AI infrastructure in a fierce “arms race,” while on the other, supply remains severely insufficient, with NVIDIA orders even entering a rationing system. As a result, capital has realized that the current focus of AI development lies not in the downstream applications, but in the upstream supply chain—those who secure a critical position in the AI supply chain and achieve irreplaceability are the ones most deserving of a valuation reset.

Over the past few months, market hype around the AI industry has progressively trickled down the supply chain, starting from initial GPU computing power, then moving to the second tier of storage, data centers, and optical modules, followed by power, materials, and network equipment. This layered approach to dissecting the AI supply chain and identifying key “bottleneck” companies at each stage is precisely Serenity’s bottleneck investment methodology—except he acted on it earlier than the vast majority of retail and institutional investors.

On March 31, Serenity used an analogy when calling out AXTI to vividly illustrate what a bottleneck point is. He compared it to the Strait of Hormuz, through which over 20% of the world’s crude oil supply passes, making it a critical bottleneck in global energy trade. Similarly, AXTI serves as a bottleneck point for AI optical module companies, just as the Strait of Hormuz does for global energy trade.

The ability of Serenity to generate excess returns still stems from market information asymmetry, leveraging sharp insight and forward-looking vision to identify “hidden champions” in the AI supply chain that have not been fully priced. These companies may not shine as brightly as giants like NVIDIA, Micron, or SK Hynix, but they are small monopolistic firms whose shortages or shutdowns could trigger seismic disruptions across the trillion-dollar AI industry downstream.

For example, in February–March this year, Serenity repeatedly stated during her calls on IQE that both IQE and Landmark are major photonic chip epitaxial wafer foundries, but IQE’s overall production capacity is significantly larger than Landmark’s; at that time, Landmark’s market capitalization was approximately $3.8 billion, while IQE’s market capitalization was only $135 million.

It’s worth noting that Serenity is not superhuman and doesn’t have exhaustive knowledge of every link in the AI industry chain; she frequently mentions using AI to assist her in researching the AI supply chain, including dissecting the产业链, identifying suppliers, and engaging in debates with AI on various viewpoints.

In investing, idolizing any individual is extremely dangerous—Serenity’s win rate is not 100%, and stocks he recommended at the beginning of the year, such as CPSH and INFQ, experienced significant drawdowns in February and March. Rather than copying his portfolio, retail investors should focus on learning his research framework and mindset, developing their own systems, and ultimately discovering their own Alpha.

Serenity is also a highly idealistic and mysterious figure. None of his personal public information has been verified by third parties, and no one knows whether he is male or female. The only personal detail he has revealed is that he leads an international digital nomad lifestyle and is currently studying Japanese in Japan; he has also lived briefly in mainland China, so he understands some Chinese, and frequently visits countries such as South Korea, the United Kingdom, Singapore, and Canada, claiming to have visited at least 28 countries.

Because Serenity only displays returns without showing live trading, some have questioned whether his returns might be fabricated. In response, Serenity said, “The reason I don’t disclose specific amounts is because the amounts aren’t important”—he simply wants to demonstrate that users can find genuinely valuable information from free posts, and percentage-based market returns are the most suitable way to validate an argument. He also stated that he strongly dislikes traditional KOLs who flaunt money, luxury watches, sports cars, and private jets.

Opposing paywalls or paid communities is also a defining feature of Serenity. Serenity publishes the majority of his core market research on X, where anyone can read it for free—no barriers, no paid communities. His account subscription costs just $1/month and consists solely of an Excel spreadsheet; even without subscribing, you won’t miss a thing when it comes to understanding his core insights.

In a world where everyone is chasing profit, Serenity’s seemingly altruistic behavior of freely sharing his opinions with the market—unconcerned with fame or gain—appears unusually selfless. As a result, some speculate that Serenity is merely using his influence to manipulate the prices of low-market-cap stocks, accumulating positions at low prices and then pumping and dumping them, ultimately leaving a “tiny ant position” in his account to confuse his followers, since he only ever discloses returns, not actual profits.

This has the flavor of “judging a gentleman by the standards of a petty person,” but of course, Serenity has its own interpretation of what it means to be a gentleman.

He believes the stock market is a positive-sum game, and his goal is to share key insights before institutions "buy in," enabling retail investors to get on the right path and benefit from the gains. He feels particularly proud when he sees retail investors access these wealth-building opportunities without spending over $2,000 to join paid communities. He describes himself as changing the old model—for example, he says that if he hadn’t shared the IQE story, institutions like AVGO would have quietly acquired IQE, leaving retail investors with no opportunity to profit.

Which version is the truth? Is Serenity truly someone who sees through the AI supply chain, or is she a top player exploiting the "bottleneck narrative" to profit from traders? We don’t know yet—and whether Serenity will become a legend or a bubble, we can only leave to time to decide.