BlockBeats news, June 7: "New Stock God" Serenity responded to questions about how beginners should learn investing and systematically outlined her investment framework. Serenity admitted her personal style is somewhat different, fundamentally based on making independent judgments using information not yet captured by the market, combined with accumulated life experience. "Much of it involves guessing at non-structured relationships and then waiting to see if you're right. This ability is hard to teach through courses—it’s more about building life skills and applying them to the market."
Serenity revisited this approach using two classic case studies. The first was the Raspberry Pi: while the market generally viewed the RPI as an educational toy, he observed that after the rise of OpenClaw (an open-source AI agent framework), many of his friends were purchasing Raspberry Pis and Mac Minis to deploy AI applications, and AI orchestration tutorials were flooding online. He concluded that AI would become the ideal growth engine for the RPI—he privately modeled an expected revenue growth rate of approximately 55%, which ultimately matched the actual reported figure of 58%, far exceeding the market’s expectation of 14%. “At the time, the media called it a meme stock because there was no visible sign of AI-driven revenue growth in public channels.”
The second is AXT: When he bought it at around $12, he was mocked; some large language models even hallucinated that major cloud providers and governments should have long ago discovered and fixed the InP substrate vulnerability, while analysts used static TAM estimates to conclude that AXT was overvalued. “But AXT controls about 40% of the InP supply chain—without it, the entire chain breaks. The question is: if it becomes a bottleneck like NAND, what market cap could it achieve based on its control, and at what price would buyers view it?” Goldman Sachs’ current research findings and the financial reports of substrate epitaxial wafer companies all confirmed his analysis of AXT only after he published it.
Serenity also acknowledges that not all investments require such complexity: “Many stocks are adequately analyzed using standard methods.” For example, if AAOI’s annualized revenue guidance for the first half of 2027 reaches $471 million while its current market cap is only $12 billion, it may be undervalued; Samsung Electronics is simpler—just assess whether the current valuation aligns with market models for its operating profits in 2027 and 2028. For harder-to-value JBL (Jabil), with its 1.6T LRO (Linear Receive Optical) product lacking clear sales data, “you can only guess how widespread it might become and extrapolate its impact on the current market cap.” Serenity concludes that what she does is essentially piecing together unrelated fragments to form high-confidence inferences: “Of course, it could always be wrong.”