Serenity Analyzes Sivers' Potential Role as a CPO Industry Bottleneck

Huo Xing Cai Jing reports that on June 4, "New Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that as co-packaged optics (CPO) technology is expected to enter a large-scale deployment phase in the second half of 2027, Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) may simultaneously assume the roles of both an industry bottleneck and a critical node. It notes that supply of continuous wave (CW) lasers has already shown signs of strain. Capacity at Japanese suppliers such as Sumitomo Electric, Furukawa Electric, and Win Semi has become highly saturated due to prior orders related to NVIDIA. Sivers, which operates under a fab-lite model, has secured substantial CW laser production capacity in advance through agreements with foundries like Win Semi, effectively controlling a significant portion of the final CW laser supply. The analysis indicates that multiple CPO pathways—including those from Ayar Labs, Jabil, Marvell Celestial, and other hyperscale cloud providers’ ASIC projects—are heavily reliant on Sivers’ laser solutions, with no mature alternatives available in the short term, granting Sivers a structural “chokepoint” position within the ecosystem. Additionally, Sivers serves as the default reference laser design for GlobalFoundries, with ecosystem participants including AMD and multiple CPO chip suppliers. Except for vertically integrated firms such as NVIDIA and Broadcom, most ASIC and commercial CPO projects are likely to center around Sivers. Serenity forecasts that as the CPO market scales from nearly zero to between $81 billion and $91 billion over the next approximately 18 months, Sivers could replicate Lumentum’s growth trajectory and potentially become a company with a market capitalization of around $75 billion within the coming years. However, these views represent only the personal judgment of market analysts.