BlockBeats news, on June 29, SemiAnalysis stated that recent U.S. economic data contain significant noise: the upward revision of Q1 GDP was primarily due to reduced imports; one-third of May’s personal income growth came from a one-time farm relief payment; the surge in PCE inflation was driven by energy prices; and the sharp decline in durable goods orders resulted from a reversal in aircraft orders. These exceptional factors will all revert to the mean, and once stripped out, the overall economic picture changes significantly.
Tariff-induced goods inflation represents a one-time price level shock that will exit year-over-year data in approximately 12 months; however, consumers' real purchasing power is permanently reduced and will not recover as inflation rates decline. Goods inflation has now surpassed services inflation, reflecting the transmission effect of tariffs.
SemiAnalysis believes that, despite macroeconomic fluctuations, AI capital spending is a real and sustained trend: equipment and software contributed 1.55 percentage points to Q1 GDP, four times the contribution of consumers; core capital goods orders rose 1.6%; and AI data center construction is rapidly increasing its share of the economy, with no mean reversion expected.