SemiAnalysis: U.S. Economic Data Obscured by Noise, AI Infrastructure Growth Remains Robust

Huo Xing Cai Jing reports that on June 29, SemiAnalysis stated that recent U.S. economic data contain significant noise: the upward revision to Q1 GDP was primarily due to reduced imports; one-third of May’s personal income growth came from one-time farm relief payments; the surge in PCE inflation was driven by energy prices; the sharp decline in durable goods orders resulted from a reversal in aircraft orders. These special factors will all revert to the mean, and once stripped out, the overall economic picture changes. Tariff-induced goods inflation represents a one-time price-level shock that will exit year-over-year data in approximately 12 months, but consumers’ real purchasing power has been permanently reduced and will not recover as inflation rates decline. Goods inflation has now surpassed services inflation, reflecting the transmission effect of tariffs. SemiAnalysis believes that despite macroeconomic volatility, AI capital expenditure is a genuine and sustained trend: equipment and software contributed 1.55 percentage points to Q1 GDP—four times the contribution of consumer spending—core capital goods orders rose 1.6%, and AI data center construction is rapidly increasing its share of the economy, a trend that will not revert to the mean.