The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is slowing the launch of a new category of exchange-traded funds tied to prediction markets, signaling that regulators are not yet ready to approve products built around betting on real-world events.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the agency needs more time to evaluate the risks behind these products, noting that “new products raise new questions.” He instructed SEC staff to gather public feedback before moving forward with pending applications.
Earlier this month, the regulator paused reviews of filings submitted by Bitwise, Roundhill Investments, and GraniteShares. All three firms filed their applications in February.
Why Prediction Market ETFs Are Drawing Attention
Prediction markets have rapidly become one of crypto’s fastest-growing sectors. Monthly trading volume now regularly exceeds $15 billion as users speculate on elections, sporting events, company earnings, and cultural developments.
The proposed ETFs would give investors exposure to prediction market contracts through traditional brokerage accounts instead of specialized crypto platforms. Supporters believe this could mirror the path taken by spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which attracted billions of dollars after their approvals in 2024.
Bitwise has proposed several products under its PredictionShares brand focused on U.S. election outcomes, while Roundhill Investments and GraniteShares submitted similar offerings.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the SEC appears to be handling these products the same way it approached early spot crypto ETFs: cautiously and step by step.
He noted that regulators want to fully understand the market structure before opening access to mainstream investors.
Legal Risks Add More Pressure
The regulatory uncertainty comes as prediction market platform Kalshi continues to face legal battles in several U.S. states.
Unlike traditional ETFs tied to stocks or commodities, prediction market products rely on binary outcomes rather than asset prices. That creates new concerns around pricing models, market manipulation, and dispute resolution.
One of the biggest unresolved issues is how contested outcomes would be handled in politically sensitive or controversial events. Analysts say that uncertainty could become a systemic risk if these products enter mainstream financial markets.
SEC Signals Broader Push Toward Financial Innovation
Despite its cautious stance, the SEC continues to acknowledge the growing role of ETFs in financial innovation. Atkins said ETF assets under management have tripled since 2019, making them one of the most influential forces in modern markets.
The regulator has recently shown greater openness toward unconventional financial products, especially after introducing a universal listing framework that simplified ETF approvals.
At the same time, reports suggest the SEC is considering an “innovation exception” that could allow tokenized versions of traditional stocks such as AAPL, NVDA, and TSLA to trade on crypto infrastructure.
The SEC’s handling of prediction market ETFs now looks increasingly similar to its earlier approach toward Bitcoin ETFs: delay first, establish standards later, and only approve products once regulators feel market risks can be contained.