Odaily Planet Daily reports: monetsupply.eth, Strategic Lead at Spark Protocol, posted on X that as liquidity in the stablecoin market begins to tighten, the current rsETH incident may be entering a more dangerous phase. Approximately 16.5% of the ETH market is supported by rsETH; if related losses are evenly distributed across the mainnet and cross-chain environments, rsETH loans under eMode could face a 10%-15% discount. After exhausting risk buffers, ETH depositors may still bear residual losses of 2%-3%. Under this expectation, ETH providers are inclined to exit promptly, locking market utilization at 100%, while borrowing rates remain insufficient to incentivize leveraged positions such as wstETH and weETH to deleverage and release liquidity. Meanwhile, since ETH cannot be withdrawn, users who borrowed stablecoins like USDT against ETH collateral are unable to close their positions in a timely manner—even as stablecoin lending rates rise, the original market incentive structure has been disrupted.
monetsupply.eth further noted that in a 100% utilized, "locked" state, the DeFi market could face a cascading liquidation crisis and two major distorted incentives: first, ETH holders cannot adjust their collateralization ratio, and liquidators cannot withdraw and sell collateral assets; if ETH prices decline, bad debt could rapidly accumulate. Second, stablecoin depositors may be incentivized to effectively "exit" by borrowing other stablecoins, locking in approximately 75% of their capital recovery space at a low cost while positive yields still exist. For lending markets reliant on liquidity pools and re-collateralization, liquidity must be prioritized; recently, Aave’s reduction of the upper limit for the maximum borrowing rate (slope2) is weakening deleveraging incentives and significantly increasing the risk of systemic failure.