QCP Highlights Fed Decision, Government Shutdown Risk, and Crypto Market Structure Bill

QCP Capital's analysis states that Bitcoin has rebounded to the $88,000 level after a sharp decline earlier this week. The market is currently facing multiple key events: the Federal Reserve's FOMC decision today (January 28, in Eastern Time), the funding deadline on January 30 that could potentially lead to a government shutdown, and the U.S. Senate's discussion on a bill related to the structure of the cryptocurrency market. The options market reflects asymmetric risks, with volatility relatively controlled. The term structure still shows a futures premium, indicating that the market expects volatility rather than a crash. However, the left-tail risk premium is high, and the skew remains negative, suggesting that recent option price movements are more like hedging against gap risks. On the fiscal front, the market is closely watching whether Washington can smoothly pass the January 30 deadline. A timely agreement would reduce the recent risk premium and bring cryptocurrency performance closer to that of the broader market. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with the focus on when it will resume rate cuts, which could impact the U.S. dollar's trajectory and short-term risk sentiment.