BlockBeats report, June 24: QCP Capital’s daily observation noted that, following the signing of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU), market focus has shifted from the agreement itself to execution-related risks. Although Brent crude prices have fallen below $80, transit through the Strait of Hormuz has not fully resumed, with only about 14 vessels passing daily—far below normal levels. The progress of technical negotiations over the next 60 days and the implementation of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire will be key indicators to watch.
On monetary policy, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%–3.75%, but the median dot plot for 2026 was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, further reinforcing the "higher for longer" stance. Meanwhile, the Fed raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3.6%, underscoring that inflation remains a key constraint on current policy.
In the technology sector, SpaceX's stock price has declined from its post-IPO high of $211 to $155, a 27% drop from its peak, but remains above its offering price of $135. QCP believes the market narrative is shifting from the IPO frenzy to AI-driven funding logic, with SpaceX increasingly becoming a key component in the AI capital formation cycle.
In the crypto market, Strategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin, currently holding 847,363 BTC, approximately 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply, with an average cost basis of $75,651. QCP notes that although Strategy’s funding and accumulation mechanisms remain active, its ability to further leverage and increase Bitcoin holdings is narrowing, given that the spot price is below its cost basis and preferred shares have fallen below par value.