BlockBeats report, on April 22, QCP released a market outlook stating that BTC rebounded from an overnight low of approximately $75,000 to around $78,000, but this movement reflects more of a position unwind than a restoration of confidence. Following the extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran, market participants have reduced concerns about near-term escalation, while Walsh’s testimony reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent policy stance without signaling a dovish shift. Risk sentiment has stabilized, but macroeconomic pressures remain firmly in place.
For cryptocurrencies, BTC's rebound has been driven more by reduced tail risk than by improved fundamentals. Open interest has been rebuilt, while funding rates remain negative, indicating new short positions entering rather than long positions capitulating. This means the short squeeze dynamic is still in play, but market conviction remains shallow.
The options market has sent the same signal. Front-month volatility remains around 40 vol, still low relative to realized volatility; skew continues to favor downside protection; and the term structure shows only a mild upward slope. Positioning continues to point toward a range-bound environment rather than a sustained breakout.
QCP believes that the future path remains anchored to oil prices and policy direction. A decline in oil prices or clearer signals from the Federal Reserve would support risk assets. In the absence of these factors, the market is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode, pricing in uncertainty rather than seeking definitive resolution.