Non-fungible token (NFT) prices have surged, making the market appear vibrant to those focused solely on price increases. However, overall market activity tells a very different story.
The leaders in gains were Bored Ape Yacht Club and Pudgy Penguins, whose minimum acquisition prices (i.e., lowest acquisition costs) saw double-digit increases over the past few weeks, along with double-digit rallies in their token prices. However, the number of buyers in this rebound has been far lower than before.
The floor price of Fat Penguin has risen above 5 ETH, increasing over 20% this week, with 201 trades totaling nearly 1,000 ETH in the past seven days supporting this rally. The floor price of BAYC has climbed 81% over the past 30 days, rebounding strongly from its lows.
Floor price is an important metric. In an NFT collection, the floor price refers to the lowest price of any item currently for sale. For example, if the cheapest Pudgy Penguin NFT on the market is listed at 5.38 ETH, that price becomes the collection’s floor price. A rising floor price typically indicates that buyers are willing to pay higher prices to acquire an NFT, while a falling floor price often suggests that holders are rushing to sell.
But beneath the surface price increase, the market structure reveals a very different picture, as market participation is declining.
According to CryptoPunk, global NFT sales dropped from $304 million in February to approximately $175 million in April, with total trading volume and active users both declining by nearly half.
Meanwhile, the average selling price more than doubled month-over-month, rising from $30.60 in March to $67.38 in April. These two data points reflect the same phenomenon from opposite extremes: a small amount of capital concentrated in high-value blue-chip collectibles, rather than a broad-based recovery in market demand.
Even among blue-chip collections, there are differences in demand quality. Pudgy Penguins has relatively high trading volume and a corresponding price increase, indicating sustained market activity. In contrast, collections like CryptoPunks, while having similar weekly trading volumes, have far fewer transactions, meaning that a small number of large trades have a significant impact on price.
Overall market signals remain mixed. Wash trading still accounts for approximately 50% of total volume. According to CryptoSlam, overall trading profits remain negative, indicating that many participants are still in loss despite recent rebounds.
Overall, the data shows that the market is trending toward stability but has not yet expanded. Prices have risen, but participation has declined, and trading activity is concentrated among only a few series.
Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) rose approximately 18% over the past month, with Bitcoin (BTC) posting nearly identical gains. This seemingly NFT-driven rally is simply the inevitable result of broader risk-on sentiment in the crypto market, with ETH-denominated blue-chips riding the same upward wave as other cryptocurrencies.