Prominent Trader: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Loss Supply Exceeds FTX Collapse Levels

Huo Xing Finance reports that renowned trader Killa posted that during the previous Bitcoin bull market, approximately 80% of cycle top indicators were never triggered, and similar behavior could occur with future bottom indicators—thus, historical signals should not be mechanically relied upon to identify market bottoms. He noted that the supply of long-term holders currently in a loss position has exceeded levels seen during the FTX collapse and is approaching those of the 2018 bear market. Bitcoin’s realized price is currently around $50,000, and in every prior cycle, price has tested the long-term holder realized price; therefore, a return to this level remains possible. However, Killa emphasized that Bitcoin should not be assumed to necessarily retrace to this level. Many top indicators in the previous cycle failed to trigger, and some bottom indicators may also fail in the future. Regardless, the current market’s level of unrealized losses is comparable to that seen during the FTX event and the 2018 bear market.