BlockBeats news, on July 22, renowned trader Killa (@KillaXBT) posted that Bitcoin’s previous bear markets typically completed a five-wave correction and formed two key highs. The first high often occurs during the initial strong rebound after the peak—the so-called “complacency high,” where the market widely believes the bull market has returned—after which prices usually decline to new lows.
It notes that a similar structure appeared in the cycles of 2014, 2022, and 2026. After a complacency peak forms, the market typically experiences a "dead cat bounce" and establishes a temporary bottom; as market sentiment deteriorates and short positions become concentrated, a short squeeze subsequently drives price higher, with the final bottom usually forming after a second significant retest.
Killa believes that BTC has now swept the low formed by the "dead cat bounce" and completed a five-wave corrective structure similar to previous cycles. From a structural perspective, the correction has likely ended, and the low may have been formed.
However, it remains cautious regarding the time cycle. Historically, bear markets have typically taken around 365 days to form a final bottom, whereas if the low has already been reached in this cycle, it has only taken approximately 260 days—about 100 days earlier than the historical average. The current assessment remains a 50/50 probability, but the likelihood of forming higher lows going forward is greater than a significant new low.