Project Eleven released a new report on Wednesday suggesting that the tipping point for quantum computers breaking modern cryptography—commonly known as "Q-Day"—could arrive as early as 2030.
The startup specializing in post-quantum security says it is “very likely” to achieve a breakthrough by 2033, though estimates could vary by a few years.
The "Plan 11" predicts that advancements in the quantum field will occur rapidly and explosively, rather than slowly and linearly.
The report states that advances in hardware and algorithms are accumulating and could lead to a significant leap in capability. Describe “like nothing, and then suddenly everything.”
Recent demonstrations have partially supported this theory. Last month, researchers used quantum hardware to factor a 15-bit elliptic curve key.
While noteworthy, it is still far from the 256-bit encryption used in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
Project Eleven estimates that approximately 6.9 million bitcoins (currently worth over $560 billion) may be at quantum risk under certain circumstances.
Racing to upgrade
Even if Quantum Day (Q-Day) is still years away, as researchers predict, migrating to quantum-resistant wallets and addresses could take just as long.
The report highlights a theory known as Mosca's inequality, which essentially states that if the time required to upgrade a system is longer than the time until a threat arrives, then the system is already behind.
This approach has already begun to drive the cryptocurrency industry to take early action.
Paradigm researcher Dan Robinson recently proposed a scheme that would allow Bitcoin holders to prove ownership of their wallets by using a timestamp to reclaim funds from a future quantum-secure version of Bitcoin without exposing on-chain activity.
Other methods, such as the proposal by Jameson Lopp et al. under BIP-361, would provide users with a multi-year migration window to move funds to quantum-resistant addresses.
Moreover, it's not just the cryptocurrency space that is vulnerable. Other tech giants, such as Google, are also accelerating their efforts to transition to quantum-resistant cryptography by 2029.