Prince Andrew Arrested as Epstein Files Spark Prediction Market Bets

The opening weeks of 2026 have been nothing short of tumultuous, as millions of newly released files tied to the late and convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein have unveiled vast caches of evidence and documentation. Then on Thursday, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, formerly known as Prince Andrew, was arrested by Thames Valley Police on suspicion of misconduct in public office. With that development, prediction markets have ignited with wagers speculating on the likelihood that additional figures may face charges.

Multiple reports state that Prince Andrew was arrested on Feb. 19 on charges stemming from allegations that, during his tenure as a U.K. trade envoy from 2001 to 2011, he shared confidential government documents and commercial information with Jeffrey Epstein, the convicted sex offender. The claims suggest that the former prince breached his duty of confidentiality concerning sensitive political, commercial, or official material.

Meanwhile, King Charles, his older brother, voiced his “deepest concern” while maintaining that “the law must take its course.” As the investigation unfolds, many observers are asking whether additional arrests will follow and whether any charges could be filed on U.S. soil against others who may have violated the law alongside Epstein and his associates.

That uncertainty has fueled a fresh round of wagers across leading prediction platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi. One Polymarket contract currently assigns a 21% probability that someone will be jailed in connection with the Epstein disclosures.

That particular Polymarket market is limited to U.S. charges and requires that an individual receive federal, state, or local jail time in the United States for the contract to resolve “yes.” In a separate U.S.-focused contract, Polymarket participants assign a 37% likelihood that someone will be charged over the newly released Epstein files. Kalshi, for its part, lists numerous Epstein-related markets, though none are tied directly to arrest probabilities.

A unique entrant, a prediction marketplace and decentralized exchange ( DEX) built on the Zano blockchain known as ZanoX, has recently launched contracts centered on potential arrests. ZanoX describes itself as a privacy-first prediction market and betting platform, enabling users to place binary wagers or enter prediction contracts tied to real-world developments. Its markets operate onchain, and because Zano supports confidential transactions, the platform promotes the idea of concealing who is betting.

This amounts to an appealing aspect for users who prefer “no eyes on your plays.” The arrest-focused markets include a range of individuals whose names appear in the recently disclosed Epstein files. Trading activity has so far been limited, as many of the markets only recently went live, leaving odds across listed individuals still taking shape.

Prediction market structures like the arrest events on ZanoX further create a peculiar dynamic: those convinced a figure will never face arrest can wager “no” for a potential payout, while others may speculate the opposite. In effect, participants can align financial incentives with their expectations, whether those expectations center on prosecution or exoneration.

Whether these markets ultimately prove prescient or merely reflective of public speculation, their existence highlights how financial instruments now intersect with legal drama in real time. As investigations continue in the U.K. and scrutiny intensifies in the United States, prediction platforms are effectively quantifying uncertainty by the percentage point.

For now, the odds remain fluid, shaped less by court rulings than by headlines, filings, and the next document to surface.

• Why was Prince Andrew arrested in February 2026?
  He was arrested on Feb. 19 over allegations he shared confidential government and commercial information with Jeffrey Epstein during his tenure as a U.K. trade envoy.
• Are U.S. authorities filing charges related to the new Epstein files?
  As of now, no new U.S. charges have been confirmed, but investigations and public scrutiny are ongoing.
• What are Polymarket and Kalshi predicting about Epstein-related arrests?
  Polymarket contracts currently assign measurable odds to potential U.S. charges and jail time, while Kalshi lists related but non-arrest-focused markets.
• What is ZanoX and how does it relate to Epstein arrest betting?
  ZanoX is an onchain prediction platform built on the Zano blockchain that has launched privacy-focused markets speculating on possible arrests tied to the Epstein disclosures.