As per BitPush, 2025 marked a turning point for prediction markets, shifting from event-driven to structurally transactional. Monthly trading volumes exceeded $1 billion by year-end, with Kalshi and Polymarket leading in compliance and global liquidity. The industry formed five distinct camps, including regulated platforms, crypto-native experiments, high-frequency trading models, wallet-integrated solutions, and content-embedded prediction tools. Regulatory clarity emerged, though boundaries remain controlled. Prediction markets are evolving from gambling to tools for pricing uncertainty.
Prediction Markets in 2025: Scale, Players, and a Watershed Year
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Summary
Prediction markets in 2025 saw a major shift toward structural trading, with monthly volumes hitting over $1 billion by year-end. Price prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket led in compliance and liquidity. The sector split into five groups: regulated platforms, crypto-native models, HFT strategies, wallet-integrated tools, and content-embedded prediction apps. Regulatory lines became clearer, but limits remain. Fear and greed index tools now often include prediction features, showing how the space is moving beyond gambling into pricing uncertainty.
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