Original Title: Betting on Prediction Markets Is Their Job. They Make Millions.
Original Author: Benjamin Wallace, The New York Times
Translated by Luffy, Foresight News
BlockBeats Note: With the rise and popularity of prediction markets, a new breed of professional players has emerged: they navigate between probabilities and odds, earning a living by forecasting the future. In the hands of these professional traders, major events such as shifts in geopolitical dynamics and minor details like the phrasing of politicians' speeches are all transformed into fluctuating profits in their accounts.
The New York Times recently interviewed several full-time traders who make a living through prediction markets, revealing how they convert massive amounts of information into real wealth. The emergence of this profession marks our entry into a new era where "cognition is currency." A group of sharp young people have already taken the lead, attempting to deconstruct every fragment of the future using data and logic. The following is the original content.:
At just 26 years old, Joel Holsinger quit his job as a corporate certified public accountant and, within only two months of trading full-time in prediction markets, steadily made progress toward his first $100,000 profit goal. It was a Tuesday before Thanksgiving last year, near noon, as President Trump was about to hold his annual turkey pardon ceremony.
At that time, Joel Holsinger wagered $700 on whether Trump would utter two specific words. Two leading prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, both launched "mention markets" betting products, allowing users to bet on whether the president would use dozens of specific words and phrases, including "hottest," "big beautiful bill," "radical left/far left," and "rigged election/stolen election."
He bought 500 "stuffing" negative contracts at 86 cents and 500 "cheaper" negative contracts at 70 cents. These betting choices were almost entirely based on his research into the frequency of word usage in Trump's past speech transcripts.
Joel Holsinger said that Trump would almost certainly mention the topic of affordable prices, but he has always preferred using the word "lower" instead of "cheaper." Since August last year, Trump has not used the word "cheaper" at all, and in his previous turkey pardoning speeches, he had never mentioned "stuffing" either.
Nevertheless, Joel Holsinger remained extremely cautious about the amount he bet. "The sample size is only four," he said, referring to Trump's four Thanksgiving speeches during his first term, "I wouldn't do anything crazy."
On Joel Holsinger's preferred platform, Kalshi, the betting odds against Trump saying "stuffing" have dropped to 81 cents, indicating the market's increasing expectation that he will use that word.
"Do any individuals have an exclusive advantage in the 'stuffing' bet?" Joel Holsinger asked through his headset. Wearing sweatpants and a T-shirt, he sat cross-legged in an office chair in a four-story walk-up apartment in Brooklyn's South Williamsburg, live-streaming to over 1,000 viewers tuning in to hear the analysis from the blogger known as PredictionMarketTrader. He and his fiancée had recently moved there from Los Angeles, and boxes from Home Depot were still stacked in the corner of the room.
The highly anticipated main event he was eagerly looking forward to was which of the two turkeys would be granted the ceremonial pardon—Gobble or Waddle? Joel Holsinger bet $2,500 on Gobble.
He originally had no intention of placing a bet, as he felt the matter was confusing and had found no clues that could give him an edge in placing a wager. He had even told the audience, "I really don't see any reason to be bullish on Waddle," and "Many people are supporting Gobble, but I might just be trapped in an information echo chamber."
But just 30 minutes ago, his friend discovered a new video from the Associated Press that apparently confirms Gobble as the winner: in a White House press conference, the voiceover states that although "both turkeys will receive a pardon," Gobble "will become the official Thanksgiving turkey for the nation."
Such subtle differences in wording are completely unnoticed by ordinary people, but for traders, they are invaluable pieces of information. The settlement criteria for betting projects on top platforms are often hidden in the fine print, with every word meticulously scrutinized. Other traders apparently haven't discovered this video yet; the definite contracts betting on Gobble's victory are still being sold at about 82 cents each. Joel Holsinger immediately bought 2,475 contracts. If he wins, he will earn approximately $425.
In the live stream of the rose garden, a turkey appeared in the frame, its wattle bobbing comically at the edge of its beak. "Is that Gobble on stage?" Joel Holsinger shouted out, allowing the live stream audience to join the discussion. "Can someone find a photo to compare?"
Trump's speech was all over the place and included many words that traders were betting on, such as "affordable," "Walmart," and "egg."
"Now, let's grant a pardon to Gobble. By the way, Waddle is absent, but that's okay—we'll just pretend he's here..." said Trump.
Joel Holsinger's eyes instantly widened. He had made a profit betting on Gobble's victory, and also earned $250 by betting that Trump would not use the words "stuffing" and "cheaper"—and indeed, the president didn't mention either of those words.
But as the 55-minute live stream ended, Joel Holsinger was full of regret, wishing he had firmly believed and added more positions.
"I'm too addicted to the internet. I don't even recognize my own neighborhood anymore. I probably spend 16 hours a day on the computer. I should get out more," said Holsinger.
"At least we predicted it correctly and entered the market early enough. But in the end, we still entered too early; we really should have added more positions. However, everyone, the week has started well. From Sunday until now, we've already made $1,300."
Will this be the defining career of the 2020s in the 21st century?
Before 2020, the only platform available for people to earn a living by predicting current events was PredictIt in New Zealand, which set a maximum individual bet of $850 and also limited the number of traders participating in a single market. However, with the rise of two prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, in the United States, all of this has changed.
Today, thousands of real-time betting questions are available on the platform 24/7, allowing anyone to place bets on either side. For example: Will Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei step down before the end of July? Will the United States confirm the existence of extraterrestrials?
Prediction markets have firmly entered the cultural mainstream. CNN has partnered with Kalshi, and Google Finance has integrated real-time data from both Kalshi and Polymarket. This month, during CBS's Golden Globe broadcast, live betting odds from Polymarket were displayed before awards were presented. Polymarket's founder and CEO, Shayne Coplan, also attended the ceremony.
The industry has also received a political tailwind. In 2024, traders on Polymarket wagered over $3.6 billion on the election outcome between Trump and Harris. After the election voting ended, prediction markets favored Trump, while the average of opinion polls showed Harris leading by a small margin. A second Trump administration would be favorable to the industry, as Donald Trump Jr., the president's eldest son, serves as an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket and is also an investor in Polymarket. In November of last year, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Polymarket to operate legally in the United States. Other investment and betting platforms, such as Robinhood and FanDuel, have also entered the prediction market space.
Making a living by betting on prediction markets might become one of the defining professions of our era, much like Wall Street traders in the 1980s, internet entrepreneurs in the 1990s, and social media influencers in the 2010s of the 21st century.The various socio-cultural contexts that have given rise to this profession have each previously inspired countless in-depth discussions: an increasing number of young men becoming addicted to screens and online communities; the breakdown of traditional career paths and the rise of highly speculative investments with the mentality of "betting everything for big gains"; the post-trust, post-expert era, in which people increasingly trust mathematical probabilities and collective intelligence; and the current tendency for all aspects of life to become increasingly "casino-like." The emergence of full-time prediction market traders may well be the convergence point of all these trends.
A successful prediction market trader, who goes by the pseudonym Domer and requested anonymity, openly admitted that TV commentators can speak recklessly without consequences, while prediction markets are "commentary with real money on the line," because the outcomes of trades directly affect financial gains and losses. Like Domer, many traders prefer to operate anonymously to avoid the attention of the U.S. Internal Revenue Service or to prevent disgruntled losing counterparts from seeking revenge. As Domer put it: "If I made $2.5 million last year, that means someone else lost $2.5 million."
"It is critically important that we are exploring better ways to anticipate what may happen in the future," Domer continued.
Prediction markets clearly hold a strong appeal for potential insider traders. In December last year, an anonymous user on Polymarket earned over $1 million in 24 hours, partly due to an extremely contrarian bet that singer D4vd would become the most Googled person of the year. This month, a mysterious account accurately predicted the timing of the downfall of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, earning over $400,000. Domer estimates that the likelihood of the big player who bet on the Maduro event being an insider is between 85% and 90%, while the probability that the big player who bet on the Google search event was an insider is as high as 98% to 99%. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.
Most users on the two leading platforms are losing money, and betting on sports events has become a new choice for a group of young men. Many of them are unemployed and burdened with student loans or credit card debt, yet they place bets on sports events with slim chances of winning through convenient, gamified platforms. Anyone over the age of 18 can place bets in prediction markets, while most U.S. states require users to be at least 21 years old to bet on sports. In addition, since Polymarket and Kalshi have received federal government approval, gamblers in states that ban sports betting can still place wagers on events through these two platforms.
"We are creating a generation that will abandon the principles of financial prudence, and a wave of personal bankruptcies is inevitable, with mental health crises becoming even more severe than they are now," a chief executive officer of a private lending platform recently commented. An academic study published last month found that easy access to sports betting is associated with significant drops in personal credit scores, increased bankruptcy rates, higher levels of debt, and rising loan delinquency rates.
Those traders who call themselves "market wizards" are often quick-witted men who are willing to take risks and possess quantitative analytical skills, as well as above-average information processing abilities. Today, the trading volume and liquidity in prediction markets are substantial enough that top traders like Domer can earn millions of dollars annually simply by identifying inefficiencies in the market that provide them with an edge. Full-time traders say that,The current number of full-time professionals in the industry ranges from "50 to several hundred." Some analysis shows that less than 0.04% of accounts on Polymarket have taken away 70% of the profits.
Betting projects with high trading volumes and large profit potential often attract a concentration of experienced traders. Recent examples include the question: "Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July last year?" The settlement of this bet was particularly tricky, as Zelenskyy wore an outfit at the NATO summit in June that looked like a suit but did not conform to a standard suit style. Another example is the Romanian presidential election: in this betting event, many experienced traders placed their bets on the right-wing candidate, who ultimately lost, causing these traders to suffer losses. This demonstrated that their collective judgment was not reliable.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy arrives in The Hague for an official dinner before the NATO summit.
"This is the biggest loss I've ever suffered in my life," said Iabvek, a seasoned trader who goes by a pseudonym. Based in Arizona, the trader lost $350,000 on bets related to the Romanian presidential election. He requested anonymity, partly out of concern for potential extortion. However, he revealed that since November 2024, he has earned $2.5 million. His trading career began in high school with a $20 bet. At the time, underage, he used his mother's account to place a wager on Liz Cheney's victory in the 2016 Wyoming House of Representatives election.
Finding a Niche Market
Every experienced trader has their own winning strategy. Many of them could have easily made their mark on Wall Street, but instead find market forecasting more appealing. Some delve deeply into legislative processes, others specialize in climate models, and some read niche industry publications. Iabvek says that the number of professional traders in the industry is still relatively small, and it's still possible to profit in the market using simple statistical models.
In a private Discord group, many seasoned traders exchange information, such as inside tips on "safe bets." This is their term for low-risk, low-return wagers, which, while not as foolproof as U.S. Treasury bonds, are considered "sure things" in the world of prediction markets. Last year, when all 12 singles from Taylor Swift's new album charted, many traders made money from that bet. "All the pros I know said this was the safest bet of the year," said Jonathan Zubkoff, a 34-year-old trader from Long Island.
Jonathan Zubkoff's trading career began with a $100 bet, and he claimed to have earned $1.03 million in profits by 2025. He once called a congressional office as a voter to inquire whether a particular senator would attend a legislative vote. During California's 2021 gubernatorial recall election, Iabvek personally traveled to California, knocking on "thousands of doors" to conduct on-the-ground research, ultimately concluding that polls underestimated Governor Gavin Newsom's level of support. In 2021, when Elon Musk hosted Saturday Night Live, a betting market was launched on whether he would say the word "DOGE." According to two experienced traders, at the time, some traders were stationed outside Rockefeller Center, asking spectators watching rehearsals for inside information.
Some trading experts win through their extraordinary analytical skills. In January last year, trader Caleb Davies started betting against the odds, wagering that Bad Bunny would beat the heavily favored Taylor Swift and become Spotify's most-streamed artist of the year. Caleb Davies, who is currently working full-time in the information technology field, noticed that in 2023, Bad Bunny released an album in October and ultimately lost the top spot to Taylor Swift. However, in January of last year, Bad Bunny had already released a new album, giving it more time to accumulate streams. As expected, on December 3rd, Spotify confirmed that Bad Bunny had won the title, and Caleb Davies earned more than $20,000.
Bad Bunny performed in Puerto Rico last summer.
Some people specialize in a particular area. Jonathan Zubkoff, in addition to betting on political and weather events, has built what he calls a "Bloomberg terminal for Rotten Tomatoes scores"—a custom data dashboard that aggregates entertainment news sources and other relevant information. Using this tool, he has consistently maintained a high success rate in predicting weekly Rotten Tomatoes scores for movies. He says that even if someone were to replicate his dashboard, "I would bet that I can process the relevant information faster than anyone else."
For seasoned traders, last year was a bountiful one, and this year's prospects look even more promising. The various uncertainties brought by Trump mean the markets are full of unpredictability, which also means there are more topics worth betting on.There is a group of political enthusiasts, much like Taylor Swift fans, who will always bet on their idols no matter what. Meanwhile, attention toward prediction markets has surged dramatically. According to blockchain media outlet The Block, Polymarket saw 491,000 active traders last month, a record high. A large influx of new capital has entered the market, coming from both gamblers in other fields such as sports betting and ordinary people who enjoy placing bets.
Stay profitable even offline.
Since January 2022, Domer has earned $2.6 million solely on the Polymarket platform. Twenty years ago, right after graduating from college, he made a living as a full-time online poker player, but he became frustrated by the illogical ups and downs of winning and losing in poker. "If you play optimally for 40 consecutive hours and still end up losing money, you start to question your life." You can never be sure whether your opponents are bluffing, so you can't truly analyze the reasons behind your failures.
One day, while idly waiting for his poker game to end, he began thinking about what else he could bet on. That's when he discovered the Irish platform Intrade, where people could place bets on the outcomes of the Oscars. He thought the film critic Roger Ebert had good judgment, and Ebert had once said that 2006's "Crash" would and should beat "Brokeback Mountain" for the Academy Award for Best Picture. Domer placed a $10 bet on "Crash" to win and ended up making $80. "This opened up a whole new world for me—I never realized betting could be like this."
In 2008, Senator John McCain planned to announce his vice-presidential running mate in Dayton, Ohio. Domer and a friend tracked all flights arriving at nearby airports. When they saw a flight coming in from Alaska, they immediately placed large bets that Sarah Palin would be the running mate, and they made a substantial profit. Around that time, Domer gave up poker and fully committed himself to prediction market trading, which he found to be less stressful and more logical.
Currently, Domer has over 1,000 unsettled bets at any given time, involving risk capital exceeding $2 million. He once wagered nearly $260,000 that Pope Leo would not become Time Magazine's Person of the Year, which turned out to be his most profitable bet in 2025.
Near downtown Greenville, South Carolina, there is a trader named Domer in a park.
As the market scale continues to expand, competition becomes increasingly fierce, and trading becomes more time-consuming. Domer's trading station is equipped with four monitors and a television, and he often orders Uber Eats. During Israel's general election, his daily routine completely followed Israel's time schedule..
In 2017, Domer met his current wife, who at the time could not have imagined that her husband would lead such a life. At that point, the dominant betting platforms were Betfair and PredictIt, which offered fewer events to bet on, faced less competition, and involved smaller sums of money. Kalshi and Polymarket had not even been founded yet. "Imagine marrying someone like me, where your phone is constantly buzzing with notifications and distractions from all sorts of things. We're just sitting down for dinner, and I might suddenly say, 'I need to go upstairs for a moment—Eric Adams just posted on Twitter.' " He was referring to Eric Adams, the former mayor of New York.
He continued, saying that the 2024 election year was a mess. "I told her, 'Just wait until July, we'll go to Ireland and Basel, and we'll have a great time,' " he said. Basel is a city in Switzerland, "which I've always wanted to visit."
But at the end of last June, U.S. President Joseph R. Biden Jr. delivered a poor performance in a debate, sparking what Domer called "the biggest political betting event in history": Would Biden drop out of the race? "I placed a significant bet on this," he said. Ironically, during the weeks before Biden announced his withdrawal, Domer was overseas "stepping away from the internet, touching grass," and not caught up in the betting frenzy over whether Biden would drop out. Instead, he held most of his positions firmly and ultimately made a net profit of over $1 million.
Joel Holsinger, the master trader who successfully predicted the Turkey Pardon event, looks up to Domer as his role model and shares the same dream. This month, Joel Holsinger's total profit has exceeded $144,000, and he is now thinking about his next goal, which might be $500,000.
He wants to take on more risk in his trades: "My win rate shouldn't be this high—it means I've missed many opportunities to act."
Relying on Citrus-flavored Zyn nicotine pouches and Celsius functional drinks to stay alert, Joel Holsinger is fully seizing the current opportunity.My only thought now is to give it my all and go for it with everything I've got."」" is a
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