James Seyffart says prediction market ETFs may launch next week, marking new investment trend.
Roundhill Investments filing shows May 5 launch for six election-based ETFs tied to outcomes.
Firms like Bitwise and GraniteShares may launch similar ETFs, signaling broader market shift toward event-based investing.
The U.S. ETF market may be about to enter a completely new phase. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart says the first-ever prediction market ETFs may begin trading next week, letting investors bet on U.S. election outcomes like regular stocks.
This comes after Roundhill’s latest filing showed a May 5 effective date, opening the door for six new ETFs tied directly to upcoming U.S. political races.
New Type of ETF Is About to Launch
It all began on February 14, when New York-based fund issuer Roundhill Investments filed for a new group of ETFs linked to political prediction markets.
The RPM Democratic President ETF and RPM Republican President ETF are tied to the outcome of the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
The RPM Democratic Senate ETF, RPM Republican Senate ETF, RPM Democratic House ETF, and RPM Republican House ETF focus on the November 2026 midterm elections, tracking which party wins control of Congress after the votes are counted.
Now, these six prediction-based ETFs could go live as early as next week.
If launched, they would give investors a new way to take positions on political outcomes through regular ETF products.
Prediction Market ETFs Set to Launch on May 5
Bloomberg senior ETF Analyst James Seyffart quickly noticed the latest filing and said,
“Looks like we are going to see prediction market ETFs launch next week.” Roundhill’s filing now shows an effective date of May 5, signaling that launch day may be close.
Six funds are included, all tied directly to real U.S. political outcomes. These products would let investors take positions on which party wins control of the House, Senate, or future presidential races.
Seyffart said this is part of a bigger trend he calls the financialization and ETF-ization of everything, where almost anything people can speculate on may eventually become an ETF product for mainstream investors.
Bitwise and GraniteShares Could Follow
Roundhill may not be the only issuer launching soon. GraniteShares and major crypto ETF firm Bitwise also filed similar products in February.
Seyffart expects all issuers to launch around the same time, meaning the week of May 5 may bring multiple prediction market ETFs to the market at once.
He added that investors should now watch for similar updated filings from Bitwise and GraniteShares in the coming days.
Prediction Markets Are Already a Multi-Billion Dollar Business
Prediction markets have grown rapidly in recent years, especially during major political events. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi became popular by letting users trade contracts based on real-world outcomes.
The two leading U.S. platforms reportedly recorded a combined $24.3 billion in trading volume in March 2026 alone.
Now, Wall Street appears ready to bring the same idea into ETF form.
If successful, these products could attract investors who prefer using regular brokerage accounts instead of separate prediction market platforms.