Polymarket Users Profit from Predicting Maduro's Arrest 6 Days in Advance

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Golem (@web3_golem)

On January 1, 2026, Eastern Time, after a first year in office marked by assassination attempts, cryptocurrency launches, and trade wars involving tariffs, Trump had relatively smoothly navigated his first year as president. However, he had no time to celebrate, as he was currently conspiring with several key White House figures and military generals at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, plotting a shocking military operation that would shake the world.

They finalized the operation details in a secret, highly shielded room, where the atmosphere was tense. Feeling thirsty, Trump pressed the soda button on the edge of the table and asked for a glass of chilled cola. A server carrying the cola made his way through layers of Secret Service agents and delivered the still-bubbling drink to Trump's side. "There must be absolutely no surprises tomorrow regarding Maduro," Trump muttered.

Those who have served in long-term political roles know when to act as a "deaf-mute," otherwise they might bring upon trouble they can't handle. However, it's obvious that this "Coca-Cola kid" is willing to take the risk.

That night, the server known as "Coke Boy" opened the world's largest prediction market, Polymarket, and registered an account. Although he didn't understand the cryptocurrency industry, he knew that last year this platform had accurately predicted in advance that Trump would become the 47th U.S. president. Then, he bought "yes" shares on multiple related predictions, such as "The U.S. will invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026." At that time, the probability of the event occurring was only 6%. He invested his entire month's salary into it.

At 10:46 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on January 2, 2026, Trump issued a surprise attack order. Over 150 fighter jets took off from 20 bases and launched a low-altitude surprise attack on the coast of Venezuela.

At 1:01 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on January 3, U.S. forces breached Venezuela's air defense system. A U.S. Delta Force special operations unit reached the residence of Nicolás Maduro, kicked open the steel door, and after an exchange of fire, captured Maduro and his wife, then immediately withdrew without any U.S. casualties. Two hours later, Maduro and his wife were taken aboard the U.S. Navy ship *Iwo Jima* and subsequently transferred to New York.

A raid on the president of a sovereign country thus ended within 5 hours, with Trump watching the entire U.S. military operation at Mar-a-Lago.

At 4:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on January 3, Trump announced on Truth Social that the President of Venezuela and his wife had been arrested and taken out of the country.

At the same time, multiple predictions on Polymarket, such as "Maduro's removal from office" and "The timing of Trump taking military action against Venezuela," were quickly settled. That "Coke Boy" had already resigned on January 2nd, as he had made his first fortune through this early bet...

(P.S. This story is purely fictional. If any director would like to make a movie based on it, I would be happy to provide this script for free.)

Although the above plot sounds too much like a fast-food novel titled "Rebirth: I Work as a Waiter at Mar-a-Lago," it's not necessarily entirely false. "Coca-Cola Boy" is purely fictional, but it's true that Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by U.S. troops. Moreover, it's highly likely true that "insiders" placed bets in advance on Polymarket.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, three insider addresses on Polymarket suddenly placed bets on the removal of the Venezuelan president from power just before it was announced by Trump, cumulatively earning $630,400. All of these addresses were created and funded only a few days before the event occurred. Specifically, address 0x31a5 (0x31a5...8eD9) invested $34,000 and earned $409,900; address 0xa72D (0xa72D...eBd4) invested $5,800 and earned $75,000; and address SBet365 invested $25,000 and earned $145,600.

Among these three addresses, the most significant one is 0x31a5 (0x31a5...8eD9). The U.S. military's operation to capture Maduro took place at 1:00 AM EST on January 3. The media and even other countries first learned about this event at 4:30 AM EST on January 3, which was the moment when Trump announced the operation's completion on Truth Social.

However, this insider with the address 0x31a5 (0x31a5...8eD9) first bet on "Maduro will step down before January 31, 2026" at 7:20 PM EST on December 30, 2025, and even placed a bet as early as December 27 that "the U.S. military will attack Venezuela before January 31, 2026."

0x31a5 (0x31a5...8eD9) betting before the U.S. military's actual operations

This means that insiders knew about the U.S. military operation six days in advance and began building positions on Polymarket. Obtaining the operation plan of the U.S. military, supposedly the strongest armed force in the world, this far in advance would be something no hacker or intelligence agency from any country could achieve—but Polymarket did.

It doesn't rely on any surveillance methods, but rather provides a fast track for greed inherent in human nature. There is no doubt that this insider must be close to high-ranking U.S. politicians or senior military officers, or perhaps even holds a high position himself (it's unlikely to be an ordinary U.S. soldier participating in operations, placing orders while fighting in a war, is it?).

More importantly, the actors involved face little risk of exposure. Polymarket inherently offers structural advantages for anonymity: no KYC, nearly zero account creation costs, sufficient liquidity, and encrypted settlements that protect privacy. Under such conditions, it is extremely difficult to trace addresses and confirm real identities after the fact.

Therefore, when participation costs are reduced to an extremely low level and potential rewards are exceptionally high, the issue is no longer a matter of morality, but one of incentive design. Under such a mechanism, even decent politicians with noble positions may find it difficult to guarantee that they will never cross that line.

But we can imagine another possibility: if the Venezuelan government had previously monitored the abnormal buying activity on Polymarket, would things have changed a bit? (Actually, this isn't difficult, as insider betting is actually very obvious—making large purchases in a low-probability market. If there had been prior intent to monitor, it would have been highly likely to detect the anomaly.)

So, perhaps the Venezuelan government would become alert before a U.S. military operation. As a precaution, Maduro might transfer in advance to a more difficult-to-attack underground fortress, or reorganize the military ahead of time to prepare for battle.(Odaily Note: At the time the action occurred, half of Venezuela's military was in a relaxed state due to the Christmas holiday.)Otherwise, the U.S. military might not suffer zero casualties but instead face a bloody confrontation; at the very least, Venezuela could seek support from other countries in advance or publicly declare at the United Nations the potential actions of the U.S. military, thus politically constraining the United States.

Of course, the above assumption is very rough, and this incident might indeed be a coincidence. However, it has become a fact that "probability changes for major political events on Polymarket always precede mainstream information releases."

Once this model is repeatedly validated, the price signals it predicts will no longer be merely the outcome of transactions, but will begin to be regarded by the outside world as a reference indicator. Its role may gradually approach that of the Pentagon's "Pizza Index"—an informal yet highly sensitive gauge of risk sentiment.

This is certainly something the U.S. authorities would not want to see.

Previously, U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres had planned to introduce the "2026 Predictive Markets Public Integrity Act," aiming to establish restrictive rules against potential "insider trading" in prediction markets. The bill would prohibit federally elected officials, politically appointed personnel, and executive branch employees from trading in prediction market contracts related to government policies or political outcomes if they have access to or could reasonably obtain significant non-public information in the course of their official duties.

After the recent exposure of the Polymarket insider incident regarding Maduro, this bill might receive significant attention from the U.S. government. The Kalshi PR account quickly...ResponseStated that its platform rules have clearly prohibited any trading activities based on material non-public information.

Kalshi can ensure this because, since its inception, Kalshi has adhered to compliance principles and imposes very strict KYC requirements on platform users. If insider trading occurs, Kalshi is able to identify the user's identity immediately, and even freeze user funds.

Polymarket naturally became a haven for these insiders. In a way, insider trading and Polymarket have mutually reinforced each other. Polymarket provides a safe haven for insiders to make money, while insider trading also brings more trading volume and visibility to Polymarket.

Many of Polymarket's moments of breaking into the mainstream are due to revealing the truth earlier than traditional media. This is not because Polymarket players are exceptionally smart, but because a small number of individuals are influencing the probabilities.Ideally, prediction markets reflect the wisdom of crowds, but in reality, they are just playgrounds for insiders.

For most ordinary people, this may not necessarily be a bad thing. With prediction markets like Polymarket, people can detect the direction of certain events earlier, reducing their passive exposure to sudden news and no longer being entirely at the mercy of emotional public opinion or delayed media narratives. In effect, this resembles a form of "decentralization" at the information level.

But for those at the top of the pyramid, the situation is exactly the opposite. For a long time,"Who knows what and when" is itself a kind of order.The truth is not something that cannot be made public, but rather it needs to be released at the appropriate time and in the right dosage. Anyone who attempts to disrupt this rhythm will be seen as challenging the existing rules.

Therefore, Polymarket might once again run into regulatory issues in the U.S. In 2024, Polymarket's founder was subjected to a surprise FBI search at his home in New York, marking the most tense confrontation between Polymarket and the U.S. government. However, Polymarket has since returned to the U.S. market and obtained approval from the CFTC, indicating a significant easing of relations.

But regarding operations involving the arrest of Maduro, such as...High-level confidential military or security affairsAny prior leakage of such information in any form is difficult for the U.S. government to accept. Currently, the prediction market is at a critical stage of attempting to achieve regulatory compliance and seeking institutional space. The occurrence of such incidents would be interpreted by regulators as a potential threat, even if ultimately deemed coincidental.

The issue facing prediction markets is not merely a technical compliance problem, but whether they are inadvertently encroaching.Traditional Information Security and the Sensitive Boundaries of National Governance.

If prediction no longer leads truth, what remains? This question will be unavoidable in the future.