Author: Bao Yilong,Wall Street Horizon
Cape Verde drew with Spain in a World Cup group stage match, causing a prediction market trader to lose nearly $1 million.
At 0:00 Beijing Time on June 16, in the opening match of Group H at the 2026 USA-Canada-Mexico World Cup, Cape Verde—making their debut in the World Cup finals and with a total team value of less than €55 million—held the defending favorites Spain, ranked second in the world with a total team value of €1.22 billion, to a 0-0 draw.
This outcome completely disrupted the odds in the prediction market and caused significant losses for multiple traders who heavily bet on Spain. Polymarket data shows that one trader lost nearly a million dollars betting on Spain’s victory.
Million-dollar bets: The strategy of trading low returns for "certainty" has failed
According to Polymarket's public trading records, the trader with username 'betoor619' established a large long position of nearly $1.1 million when Spain's win probability was approximately 92%.
Polymarket: Spain vs Cape Verde, odds curve movement
If Spain wins comfortably, the user is expected to profit only about $85,000—a classic "low-risk, low-reward" strategy: betting on a highly probable outcome to secure a small, steady return with a large initial stake.
But the user ultimately ended up with a loss of nearly $1 million.
Polymarket user 'betoor619' lost $997,000 in the past 24 hours
Records show that the account was opened in October last year, and prior to this, its single-event profit or loss had never exceeded $9,000; this bet is more than a hundred times larger than its historical record.
Other traders also placed large bets on Spain winning, but most simultaneously executed hedging trades, partially offsetting their losses.
Polymarket allows large traders to act as market makers, holding both long and short positions on the same bet, a mechanism similar to how Wall Street institutions profit from bid-ask spreads on the same stock.
Behind the obscurity, the 40-year-old goalkeeper from Cape Verde turns the tide.
Spain was previously widely regarded as the favorite to win this World Cup.
Wall Street Journal noted that Goldman Sachs' model gives it a 25% chance of winning, the highest among all teams. Cape Verde, meanwhile, is making its World Cup debut and has no well-known professional players in its roster.
The central figure in turning everything around was goalkeeper Josimar José Évora Dias, nicknamed Vozinha. The 40-year-old veteran made seven crucial saves and left the pitch in tears after the match, earning Man of the Match honors.
Vozinha said after the match that visa issues prevented his mother from witnessing this historic moment. According to regulations, visitors from certain countries, including Cape Verde, are required to pay a refundable deposit of up to $15,000. He described this match as the goal he had been striving for throughout his entire career.
This draw is also one of several upsets since the start of this World Cup, following Japan’s comeback to equalize against the Netherlands in stoppage time on Sunday.
Platform Expansion: The Path to Mainstreaming from Political Betting to Sports Wagering
Prediction markets like Polymarket have rapidly moved out of niche circles in recent years, previously known primarily as tools for betting on geopolitical and economic events, and are now popular platforms for wagering on major global sporting events such as the World Cup.
Platform users can conduct transactions using cryptocurrency wallets with anonymous accounts, without disclosing their real identities or locations. This mechanism has drawn criticism from some lawmakers, who argue that the platform fails to collect necessary user background information, unlike traditional brokers or gambling companies.
The public transaction records also provide an external window into the massive scale and high risks of user betting during events. On Monday alone, Polymarket users traded $64 million on a single match involving Spain.