Odaily Planet Daily reports: On the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the Strait of Mandeb closing before August 31 has risen to 21%, up from a low of 11% earlier Monday; the probability of closure before September 30 once reached 26%. The Houthi group Ansar Allah in Yemen has announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, stating the action is based on the principle of "an eye for an eye" and aims to disrupt Saudi crude oil exports. The affected shipping routes involve over 4.5 million barrels of crude oil transportation. The outcome of this prediction contract will be determined by maritime trade flow data published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) platform PortWatch. If the 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals at the Strait of Mandeb falls at or below 10 on any day between the contract’s creation and expiration date, the contract will be settled as "Yes."
Polymarket shows a 21% probability of the Strait of Mandeb closing by the end of August.
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Summary
Polymarket shows a 21% chance of the Strait of Mandeb closing by August 31, up from 11% earlier this week. The 26% probability of closure by September 30 reflects ongoing tensions. Houthi forces in Yemen have announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, targeting over 4.5 million barrels of daily crude oil exports. The outcome will be determined by IMF’s PortWatch data, which measures vessel arrivals. Traders monitoring altcoins to watch may consider geopolitical risks in their price prediction models.
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