Polymarket's token launch triggers sharp decline in Predict Market probabilities

KuCoinFlash

Release Time: 04/07/2026 05:05:41

Summary

Polymarket’s token launch sent shockwaves through the crypto market, causing sharp declines in prediction market probabilities. The likelihood of its first-day FDV exceeding $2 billion is now 13%, and over $10 billion is 6%. The platform rolled out a full trading engine upgrade and launched Polymarket USD, a stablecoin also classified as a token. This move reflects shifting sentiment in the crypto market, with the Fear & Greed Index showing early signs of caution.

Odaily Planet Daily report: On Predict, all markets for "Polymarket's token launch day FDV" declined, with a 13% probability of FDV exceeding $2 billion and a 6% probability of FDV exceeding $10 billion.

The official settlement states: "If, one day after the token issuance, the FDV of the Polymarket token exceeds the specified amount, this market settles as Yes."

Today, Polymarket announced a comprehensive upgrade to its trading engine and the launch of its native stablecoin, Polymarket USD, which is also regarded as Polymarket’s token issuance, leading to significant fluctuations in the predicted probabilities of related events on Predict.

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